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Can Steelers Beat Preseason Win Total for Fifth Straight Year?

The Pittsburgh Steelers are favored to win fewer than nine games in 2024. Is this the year the oddsmakers get it right?



Pittsburgh Steelers HC Mike Tomlin
Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin during OTAs on May 28, 2024. -- Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

Don’t look now, but the Pittsburgh Steelers’ 2024 win total has been steadily climbing as the offseason has gone on, according to the betting oddsmakers. At one point this offseason, the Steelers win total over/under was fixed at 7.5 by some books. Now, it’s at 8.5, and there’s reason to think it’s on the way to moving another notch, as well.

According to odds available at FanDuel Sportsbook on Monday, the Steelers are +122 to go over their 8.5-win total, and -150 to go under that total. That means there’s an implied 45% chance the Steelers will go over 8.5, compared to a 60% chance they’ll go under it — creeping up on 50/50, despite the total having just moved a whole win from earlier this offseason.

If you’re the confident sort, FanDuel offers alternate win totals. You can get the at +245 to go over 9.5 wins (29% implied odds).

That nine-win line has been something of a benchmark for the Steelers in recent years. They went 9-7-1 in 2021, 9-8 in 2022 and 10-7 in 2023. The Steelers have won at least nine games in nine of their last 10 seasons, and Mike Tomlin’s squad has beaten the preseason Vegas win total for each of the last four seasons.

So can the Steelers do it and win nine games again in 2024? With an upgrade offense under new coordinator Arthur Smith, with new quarterback Russell Wilson, and two highly drafted offensive linemen Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier, it seems hard to believe that the offense won’t be better than it was in 2023.

But the Steelers did lose Diontae Johnson and appear to be relying on third-round pick Roman Wilson and a collection of suspect veterans to replace him. They also will need to get all of those new pieces to gel together quickly.

The Steelers have a chance to stack wins in the early part of the schedule if the offense can hit the ground running. If they can’t do that, they’re in trouble, as the Steelers finish with six playoff games and contests against the Kansas City Chiefs on a short week and at the Philadelphia Eagles over season’s final eight weeks — an absolutely brutal stretch for the schedule-makers.

If your bet is that the Steelers hold true to form, win at least nine games, and once again beat their preseason win totals, you’d better hope they get more than halfway there by the end of October, because stacking wins in that stretch run is not going to be easy.

RE:LATED: Steelers Have Toughest Schedule in 2024 Based on Vegas Win Projections