2026 NFL Draft Steelers Analysis
Is Aaron Rodgers a Short-Term Fix or a Long-Term Setback for Steelers?
The Pittsburgh Steelers’ decision to sign four-time MVP quarterback Aaron Rodgers may appear promising at first glance, particularly given the uncertainty surrounding their quarterback room, led by Mason Rudolph. However, a deeper evaluation raises legitimate questions about whether the move meaningfully improves the team’s long-term trajectory.
At 41 years old, Aaron Rodgers remains one of the most accomplished quarterbacks in NFL history. Even after missing most of the 2023 season with a torn Achilles, he returned to start for the New York Jets in 2024. Statistically, Rodgers looked strong, surpassing 3,500 passing yards and throwing 28 touchdowns. However when you dive deeper the picture isn’t all that clear. His completion percentage dropped to 62.3 percent, his lowest since 2015, while his passer rating dipped to 88.7, well below his career average of 103.9.
Advanced metrics also reflect a decline in his performance. According to ESPN’s QBR metric, Rodgers posted a 48.0 QBR in 2024, ranking 25th out of 32 qualified starters. Pro Football Focus graded Rodgers at 71.5 for the season, placing him 21st among qualifying quarterbacks. His PFF passing grade, specifically, was 69.3, the lowest full-season passing mark of his career. Rodgers averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt, ranking in the bottom third of starting quarterbacks. He was sacked 40 times, while his pressure-to-sack ratio climbed to 23.8 percent, one of the highest among starters.
While Rodgers was never considered a true dual-threat quarterback, much of his success in Green Bay stemmed from his ability to extend plays outside the pocket and make throws on the run. That element of his game has diminished considerably following his Achilles injury.
Beyond Rodgers’ individual performance, questions remain about whether Pittsburgh’s current roster is positioned to compete deep into the postseason even with his addition. While offseason acquisitions like wide receiver DK Metcalf give the Steelers a true No. 1 target, concerns persist about the lack of a proven secondary receiving option. Rookie Roman Wilson has flashed potential during OTAs, but overall depth at the position remains thin. In 2024, the Steelers ranked 29th in explosive passing plays, or passes of 20 or more yards, a metric unlikely to drastically improve unless others emerge as reliable threats.
The offensive line also remains a work in progress. Despite first-round pick Troy Fautanu adding talent to the group, the unit still struggled at times in 2024. Pittsburgh ranked 24th in pass-block win rate, according to ESPN analytics, and allowed 42 total sacks as a unit. According to PFF, the Steelers’ offensive line finished with a 59.2 pass-blocking grade, ranking 26th league-wide. The interior of the line, in particular, allowed consistent interior pressure, an area that has historically impacted Rodgers’ effectiveness most.
Schematically, there is also some uncertainty about Rodgers’ fit in Arthur Smith’s offensive system. Rodgers thrived for years in Mike McCarthy’s West Coast-based offense, which emphasized spread formations, horizontal passing concepts and shotgun dropbacks. Smith’s system leans heavily on tight formations, play-action from under center and movement-based designs like bootlegs and rollouts, often favoring quarterbacks who can threaten defenses as runners to stress them horizontally. In 2024, Rodgers posted a 60.1 PFF grade on play-action attempts, ranking near the bottom among starters, raising further questions about how effectively he can adapt to Smith’s system.
In the short term, Aaron Rodgers likely gives Pittsburgh a better chance to compete for a playoff spot compared to Rudolph. But realistically, the Steelers may hover around the 9 or 10 win mark, competitive but not true contenders. With the 2026 NFL Draft projected to feature one of the strongest quarterback classes in recent memory, including prospects like Arch Manning, Drew Allar and others, some around the league might argue that rolling with Rudolph for another season and securing a higher draft pick could position the Steelers to finally land a long-term franchise quarterback, something they have lacked since Ben Roethlisberger’s retirement.
The Detroit Lions offer one recent example of a successful long-term rebuild, prioritizing high draft selections to acquire cornerstone players like Aidan Hutchinson, Penei Sewell and Jahmyr Gibbs. That approach has transformed Detroit into a consistent playoff contender entering the 2025 season. Historically, however, such a strategy has not aligned with the Steelers’ organizational philosophy under head coach Mike Tomlin and the Rooney family, who have prioritized sustained competitiveness over full-scale rebuilding.
Regardless of the path chosen, Rodgers’ arrival in Pittsburgh will be one of the league’s biggest storylines entering the 2025 season. Whether he can help the Steelers finally secure their first playoff win since 2016 or whether this move ultimately delays the search for their next franchise quarterback remains to be seen.