NFL Week 1 Odds and Promos: Take the Steelers and the Points

The new-look Pittsburgh Steelers offense finally takes a drive off the showroom floor against the Atlanta Falcons this Sunday, 1 p.m. at Mercedes-Benz Stadium. FanDuel Sportsbook’s Week 1 NFL odds have the Steelers as a +3 underdog. 

I’m tickled. The offseason is finally over. We can all put the Kenny Pickett to Russell Wilson transition saga behind us. I’m betting many won’t be able to let it go. 

We’re now in the thick of NFL betting season. Here’s how I’m betting on the Steelers’ Week 1 clash in Atlanta. 

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Pittsburgh Steelers +3 (DraftKings)

Anyone who’s read my offseason NFL betting analysis knows I’m not high on the Pittsburgh Steelers this season. I’m not convinced Russell Wilson or Justin Fields will fix last year’s anemic offensive output.

The Steelers front office acquired LB Patrick Queen from the Baltimore Ravens to stiffen their run defense. The 2023 squad allowed an average of 118.6 rushing yards per game. 

Pittsburgh’s front seven also features Cam Heyward and Keeanu Benton. Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson and the Falcons offensive line will have trouble creating holes in the early quarters. 

A stymied rushing attack will put the new Falcons QB in third-and-long situations. The Steelers’ pass rush, led by chaos-agent TJ Watt, can feast in these situations.

Cousins was the jewel of the offseason, but he’s 36 and coming off an Achilles tear. 

Never known for his mobility, Cousins took 17 sacks in eight games during the 2023 season. Watt and his counterpart, Alex Highsmith, can get to him and put the Steelers’ offense in shorter field situations. 

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Game Total Under 42.5 (FanDuel)

The Pittsburgh Steelers posted an over/under record of 7-10 in 2023. 

The Steelers don’t play shootouts. They can’t and expect to win games. They don’t have the offensive talent to stand toe-to-toe and trade punches with the NFL’s elite offenses. 

The Falcons look to be one of those elite offenses. QB Kirk Cousins, RB Bijan Robinson, WR Drake London, and TE Kyle Pitts are a top-10 offense on paper.

The Steelers not so much. The WR depth chart is painfully thin after Pittsburgh traded Diontae Johnson and failed to land Brandon Aiyuk. And we don’t yet know if QB Russell Wilson can turn back the clock to 2018. 

OC Arthur Smith got the job because of his work in Tennessee in 2020 where RB Derrick Henry ran for a career-high 2,027 yards. I expect Week 1 and most of the 2024 season will be the RB Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren show. 

Pittsburgh covers by controlling the clock and limiting the possessions of what looks to be a dangerous Atlanta Falcons offense. 

Week 1 NFL Odds: Take the Steelers and the Under

The Steelers opened as +2.5 underdogs when the Week 1 NFL odds came out in late spring, and the line hasn’t fluctuated too much. 

Atlanta has taken some money, but most books have the line juiced to the Steelers side, indicating a possible move back to 2.5 at some point this week. 

Steelers HC Mike Tomlin’s record as an underdog is worth noting. The Steelers long-time coach has a record of 56-36-4, including playoffs, as a dog. He’s also 98-61-2 in one-score games. 

Nobody’s expecting much from the Pittsburgh Steelers this year, but I think they cover here. 

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