NFL Week 1: Thursday Night Football Picks and Promos

Thursday Night Football starts NFL Week 1 as the Kansas City Chiefs clash with the Baltimore Ravens. This lid-lifter at Arrowhead Stadium is a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game, where the Chiefs strangled the Ravens 17-7.

Both teams are among the favorites to win Super Bowl LIX, with FanDuel Sportsbook having the Chiefs as the short-shot at +550. The Ravens only trail the Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers with +1100 odds. 

It’s a primetime battle between two AFC heavyweights. Let’s go!

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Baltimore Ravens +3 (DraftKings)

Everyone is high on the Kansas City Chiefs, and they should be. Last season, Kansas City won a Super Bowl despite an offense that had very little at the skill positions. Well, except for Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce.

The Chiefs transitioned into a time-of-possession offense and let their defense win games. The 2023 Kansas City defense ranked sixth in EPA allowed per play. The Chiefs D also ranked fourth in passing yards allowed and 16th in rushing yards allowed per game. 

Kansas City’s dominant defense returns. But the offense is scary with the addition of veteran WR Marquis Brown. 

But the Ravens have a chip on their shoulder.

After dominating the regular season, QB Lamar Jackson and the Ravens couldn’t get over the hump. In the AFC Championship, the Ravens gained only 81 yards on the ground despite being the league’s premiere rushing attack.

The 17-7 loss was a massive disappointment, and the Ravens are out for revenge.

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Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike McDonald is now the Seattle Seahawks head coach. LB Patrick Queen signed with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and Jadevon Clowny split for the Carolina Panthers. 

The defense might take a step back, but the Ravens are still dangerous. Their elite offense scored an average of 28.4 points per game in 2023. Lamar Jackson is one of the best in the business, and he has plenty of weapons, including incoming legend Derrick Henry.

Look for the Ravens and OC Todd Monken to be aggressive early, hoping to erase any lingering bad feelings from last year’s AFC Championship Game. 

Game Total Over 46.5 (DraftKings)

Early season unders are usually a great play, especially in primetime games. Through the first nine weeks of the 2023 NFL Regular Season, 61.5% of all games went under the total. 

Scoring was down last season, with an average of 43.5 points per game. That’s a full six-point dip from the high-water mark of 49.6 in 2020. That trend should continue, and I blame league-wide poor QB play. 

Last season, only 38.8% of all third downs were converted—a clear sign of QB decline. 

Average to poor QB play won’t be a problem on Thursday night, and that’s why I love the over 46.5. 

The Ravens defense isn’t as talented as the 2023 vintage. Baltimore will have to score quickly to win. I see the Ravens going over the top in the early quarters to catch the Chiefs’ defense flat-footed. 

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