Pro Football Focus is pretty bearish about the Steelers’ chances of repeating as AFC North champions in 2021.
PFF ran a simulation based on its Elo model from 2020, with estimated contributions from roster updates throughout the offseason, to run 10,000 simulations of the 2021 NFL season.
The results have the Steelers winning the AFC North just 9.6% of the time and making the postseason 26.9% of the time.
The Steelers’ AFC North-winning percentage is the lowest of the four teams, with Cleveland winning 46.3% of the time, Baltimore 34.4% of the time and Cincinnati unexpectedly taking the title 9.7% of the time.
As far as overall AFC playoff odds, the Steelers roughly 1 in 4 chance is the sixth-worst in the entire NFL, with just Cincinnati, Denver, Philadelphia, Detroit and Houston ending up in the postseason less often than Pittsburgh.
PFF’s model gives the Steelers a 1.8% chance of making it to the Super Bowl and a 0.7% chance of winning their seventh title.
For their meager title odds, the Steelers also appear to be unlikely to be one of the worst teams in the league. PFF has their averaged draft position at 13.9, just a hair above the midpoint of the league. The Steelers have a 3.3% chance of landing the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 NFL Draft.