The Steelers are facing one of their stiffest tests, if not the stiffest test of the season, as they travel to Buffalo for a Sunday night showdown against the Bills. With the Bills surging behind the play of Josh Allen and the upstart coaching of Sean McDermott, they are a growingly dangerous team for top teams in the AFC. The Steelers are going to be on their A-game in order to bring home a win given their battered defense and struggling offense.
Brian Daboll is a wizard as Buffalo’s offensive coordinator. He has built an offense that works perfectly around the strengths of Josh Allen and it has allowed Allen to blossom into the star he has become today. One thing that is very evident is that this is an offense that likes to get vertical. They attack the seams and try to match up their best guys on safeties. It is a very versatile scheme that attacks both outside the numbers and in the middle of the field. They do sometimes lack sufficient checkdowns on plays, which is interesting and can leave the scheme susceptible to some pressure looks given the lack of options underneath.
This is something that the Bills love to do. Work from the shotgun and spread defenses out. They run an 11 personnel as their base, but they run a lot of 10 personnel out of this look as well. Empty set is usually 10 personnel for the Bills. Especially on third down, they always go to Cole Beasley. Simply clearing out space for him to work underneath is a quick, easy throw that gets Beasley open and allows the Bills to keep their high third-down conversion rate. It is these ideals of spacing, traffic, and conflict that they do to put defenders in binds that allows them to convert third downs at such a high level. Passive defenses like the 49ers, who sat back last week, will get picked apart by route combinations in the Bills offense.
Some of this is just not scheme, however. This is a simple dagger concept where Diggs tries to clear out the underneath for Gabriel Davis who is running a deep dig. The scheme is sound with a wheel route going up the sideline as the third read in case defenses go all out to stop and rotate down on the entirety of the concept. However, the 49ers play this quite well and this is just a dime by Allen. Some things are no longer about scheme with the Bills anymore. They have developed Allen into a star and he makes a few of these throws weekly. It is incredibly impressive.
As far as the defense goes for the Bills, they run a 4-3 that is more reliant on smart defensive back play rather than blitzing. The main principle is that the four-man rush up front can get push and collapse the pocket while the heavy Cover 3 scheme allows the flexibility on the back end to rotate safeties and cornerbacks around the formation. Similar to the Steelers, they love to disguise this Cover 3 look and rotate down a robber. Think of the role the Steelers love to use Minkah Fitzpatrick in for that type of coverage. With a smart scheme that possesses great rotations on the back end, it gives the pass rush the ability to just fly and penetrate to make plays in the backfield. That is the McDermott scheme.
Players to Watch
QB Josh Allen
Quickly on his way to becoming a superstar, Bills quarterback Josh Allen has immense physical talent. Not only does he have a rocket launcher for an arm, but he also runs a 4.5 and can extend plays outside of structure. If there is one guy who might be close to what young Ben Roethlisberger was, it is Allen. He makes the nutty throws and the impeccable plays outside of structure that few can make in this league. Thanks to his improved mechanics, his accuracy is better than ever before.
WR Stefon Diggs
The Bills went out and got Allen a true alpha receiver in Stefon Diggs, who has proven to be that and more. One of the best pure route runners in the NFL, Diggs opens up the Bills scheme in ways that were not possible prior to him arriving in Buffalo. He gets easy separation, is elusive after the catch, and can move around the offensive formation to create mismatches. In particular, it is Diggs’ ability to win in the slot that makes him such an enticing weapon for Allen and gives the flexibility Daboll wants in this offense.
CB Tre’Davious White
He had a two interception game last season against the Steelers, so Steelers fans should be very familiar with star cornerback Tre’Davious White. While he may not have elite long speed or even quickness, White’s fluidity and physicality allow him to man up anybody and shut them down. He is a bona fide player and a stud that the Steelers should be fearful of given their pass heavy attack in recent weeks.
Matchups to Watch
Diontae Johnson vs Bills secondary
The Steelers need a big time offensive day today with a shorthanded defense. The question will be who is the main go to guy to make happen. With some adjustments likely coming, it would seem that the Steelers could go more vertical. Diontae Johnson would be perfect for this. It is rare to find anyone who can cover him one-on-one, and Johnson is the type of receiver that can still give White some trouble with his quickness in and out of his breaks. It should be smooth sailing for Johnson, who is just a mismatch against this Bills secondary. If he goes off, the Steelers offense can put up a lot of points.
Bills receivers vs Justin Layne
There are a few weaknesses for the Steelers, notably at linebacker. The Bills could attack the linebackers, but it is even likelier they attack a weak link defensive back. With such usage of 4 wide receiver sets and the Steelers needing to go dime to counteract that, it should mean Justin Layne gets on the field. The Bills may want to attack him, and it will be up to Layne to make the big plays to make sure he is not the guy to be picked upon. If he can step up in a big way, this defense could bend, but not break.
Film Study: Examining Josh Dobbs as a Package QB
The Steelers offense put up a decent showing in Week 17. Behind a revitalized deep passing game, the Steelers offense opened up at all levels of the field. They eve tried out some new concepts to the scheme. The most notable of those would be the package implemented for Josh Dobbs. The third-string quarterback all season, Dobbs was inactive for the prior 15 games. Leading up to their game Sunday, the Steelers have maintained that the Dobbs package could show itself against the Browns. Having not ruled out anything, what was the package and just what did it entail?
This play is a simple pop pass jet sweep. The Steelers naturally have experience running that jet sweep action from earlier in the year. Hey, the pop pass itself has shown itself before. This one is simply a read for Dobbs to make. The Steelers run a pin-pull sweep to the short side of the field while the jet action is to the field side. The Steelers praise Dobbs for his headiness. This package makes use of that. Dobbs is reading the Mike linebacker (44) on this play. The read is simple. If the linebacker follows the motion, Dobbs keeps it, if not, it goes to Ray-Ray McCloud. The linebacker holds firm, so this goes to McCloud.
The problem with this play is the blocking is just bad. There are obvious problems. First, Myles Garrett stands Alejandro Villanueva right up and holds a strong edge. Villanueva’s inability to seal this edge eats up McCloud’s horizontal space. Then, Anthony McFarland whiffs on the linebacker coming down. This is a weird usage of personnel. McFarland never is going to be a very good lead blocker. The loss of the blocking dooms this play to fail for a loss.
This is a Steelers staple. They absolutely adore counter out of the shotgun. With Dobbs, they use it to create an effective counter read option. Working that off of their tendencies, the Browns crash on this off the edge. Dobbs just has to read what Oliver Vernon (54) does, and he keys those pullers. Dobbs simply pulls it back, has ideal open field blocking from JuJu Smith-Schuster, and gets a big rip. That is an awesome job of the Steelers using their tendencies to fool the Browns.
So, the Steelers now use the same play as the first video here in the red zone. That is perfect. The red zone is money for jet sweep action because of how much horizontal space there is to work in that area. It stretches the field. Good schematics, nice play call, but bad execution up front. Garrett was a problem for the Steelers all day, and Villanueva did not have a very good game. He blows up this play and stops McCloud from ever getting vertical.
Okay, fourth play in and third new concept. This is a seriously extensive package the Steelers have. It is not like they ran the same one or two plays. No, this is a well-developed package. That gives credence to the fact they may pull it out in the playoffs. This is the Bash Read Option. Dobbs just reads Vernon to see what he does. He squats down on McFarland running the sharp horizontal path and Dobbs keeps it. Overall, this is solid blocking. The pullers hit their guys, and the Steelers get lineman into the second level.
The Steelers work a pass off of this play. This time instead of popping it to McCloud, Dobbs runs a play-action fake and rolls out. He does a fantastic job to get out of this play. The Steelers run a three-tiered concept. McFarland is underneath on the flat route, Smith-Schuster comes on the over the route, and Washington runs a deep post. Depending on how the defense reacts adjusts Dobbs’ reads, but the over route is the most obvious one. Either way, no one is really open on this one and Dobbs has to throw it away. Creating a net-zero from a net loss as a quarterback is a good thing.
This is a play that will be familiar to everyone. The shovel option that the Steelers have run now for years. Vernon clamps down to the boundary towards McFarland, so the pitch to McDonald is the correct call here. Still, this blocking is not good and the main culprit for why this play does not work. Dotson whiffs on a pull and allows a defender to meet McDonald head-on in the alley. If Dotson hits that it is a different result and a solid gain.
The same pitch idea on this play, but instead of a shovel option, this is a shovel veer play instead, meaning that McFarland simply gets a handoff on a stretch action instead of a toss from Dobbs. The edge rusher bolts down on that veer action and the correct call is the pitch, yet again. Overall, this is just an awesome hustle play by the edge rusher to somehow turn up field and stop McDonald. The blocking on this one is outstanding. Sometimes, teams just make a better play.
Overall, the Dobbs package is promising. Schematically, it is unpredictable but simple. Teams can not crowd the box with Dobbs as a passing threat, either. That is the nice thing about this package. It seems that it would be most effective in short-yardage and red zone spots, however. The Steelers decided to unleash it in some odd spots. In the future, strictly use it for those situations and all is well. The biggest obstacle to this, as it is for the Steelers running game in general, is blocking.
Film Study: Steelers WR Chase Claypool Must Be Heavily Involved on Sunday
The Steelers, with a bevy of their backups, came excruciatingly close to a victory over the Cleveland Browns last Sunday, falling by a two-point margin that could have eliminated the Browns from the postseason. Instead, they will face the Browns on Sunday night in Pittsburgh. It will not be Mason Rudolph leading the charge but Ben Roethlisberger, which should go a long to lift Pittsburgh’s chances.
Either way, Sunday brought a valuable lesson that the Steelers must follow. The Steelers have to implement Chase Claypool into this offense and use him. For the past one and a half games, whenever activated, Claypool has proven to be a catalyst to open up the Steelers offense.
The Steelers really wanted to hit this route all day. The slant flat combination between Claypool and Vance McDonald was a frequent play call. This is the only time they end up hitting it to Claypool. Claypool uses a slide release to draw the cornerback outside from his inside shade. The cornerback’s hips turn outside and that near hip gets locked the moment his hips freeze to extend his arms for contact. Claypool then armbars over the cornerback’s arms and get enough separation to get open and get the first down. For a guy who has some trouble versus press, this is encouraging.
Obviously, though, Claypool’s explosive plays were the highlights of his day. This is an outstanding catch. The play through contact to even get himself into the window at the catch point is awesome. At times this year, Claypool has not played at his size. He does play to his size and physicality on this play and it is why he is able to make this catch. Boxing out that cornerback in contested catch situations is something that Claypool needs to do at a higher level.
However, he is capable of making plays like this any time. The Browns show a single-high look, so this cornerback is going to be on an island in the Cover 3 scheme. Something that Ben Roethlisberger needs to do this week is trusting his guys to just make plays. That is something that Rudolph did exceptionally well on Sunday. He let his guys go and make plays. That does not mean Roethlisberger has to ball Joe Flacco ball and just launch bombs. No, far from it. But Claypool is a playmaker who can make tough catches. If the pre-snap look obviously leaves him in a one-on-one scenario, give him opportunities. The guy is a freak.
This play is just pure speed from Claypool and nothing more. He stems it quite nicely into the blind spot of the cornerback. Still, this is that height-weight-speed combination that Claypool was touted for out of the draft. Guys at 6-foot-4 should not be able to run this fast. With that type of speed, Claypool can house one if the ball is on the money on any deep pass. Over the second half of the Steelers, the Steelers have neglected this stark advantage over teams. Mike Tomlin continues to mention Claypool’s “rookie wall,” but on Sunday they did want him to get involved and it was clear. As Tomlin intended, it was likely a confidence-building game.
Here is another added benefit of the Claypool vertical success. For Claypool, it will open up all of the routes on the vertical plane. With guys having to respect his deep speed, Claypool can run outs, digs, curls, comebacks, and more on the vertical plane. If they decide to devote resources to slow down those routes, too, then the underneath stuff opens up and others eat in his place. That is a great schematic advantage that the Steelers are just corking out now.
The stats are clear that when Claypool has a big day and is involved, this offense churns in a different way. It makes sense. Think back to that drive versus the Colts where the Steelers bombed in the red zone, but it was a Claypool drive. For the rest of the game, the Colts backed off. Claypool is the Steelers’ best weapon to attack downfield by far. It is not even close. He makes the wheels on the offense turn if he is on because the defense has to back off or get burnt. Part of it is Claypool doing his job. In recent weeks, he is doing just that. Now, the other part is Randy Fichtner and Roethlisberger. Get Claypool involved and give him his deep opportunities and the offense goes with it. Claypool should be an integral piece to the offensive gameplan in the Steelers’ first playoff game Sunday.
Scouting Report: Colts Playmakers On Both Sides of the Ball Present Issues
The Steelers have yet another opportunity to clinch the AFC North in Week 16 as they host a surging Indianapolis Colts team. Indianapolis has a host of young playmakers on both sides of the ball that are contributing to their upward trajectory. However, key veterans, such as quarterback Phillip Rivers, as holding down the anchor as well with their notable experience down the stretch. How can the Steelers somehow turn around the ship and defeat the Colts in Week 16?
Head Coach Frank Reich runs a system that relies itself upon West Coast offense ideals. That means this offense is very horizontal and they give their pass catchers lots of YAC opportunities. However, with Rivers being a rather solid vertical passer, they also have some elements of vertical passing concepts from the air raid and Air Coryell schemes respectively. It gives the offense flexibility to do what it wants. That flexibility comes in particular help when they suffer injuries along the offensive line and should impact them in a big way today.
Here is a little feel for the Colts passing offense. There are a lot of bunch sets and they like to attack the middle of the field at all levels. Drag routes are everywhere throughout the playbook. Some other extremely common routes are over routes, slants, post routes, and dig routes. They run bunch sets to try and create traffic. In that way, Steelers fans will recognize a bit of this scheme. Create mismatches with size through stacked looks and then let the receivers do the rest of the week. With a seam route on this play as well, it gives Rivers the ability to take the duty of trusting one of his receivers down the field if he wishes to do so. Seeing that he has single-high coverage and man coverage across the board, Rivers takes the shot and they get a big gain out of it.
However, one of the cruxes of their offensive success recently has been their rushing attack. Rookie Jonathan Taylor is finding his groove and the offensive line looks better than ever before. Most of their runs go between the tackles, and they run inside zone and split zone primarily. It takes advantage of strong blockers like tight ends Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox.
Here is a split zone run where the movement upfront is clear as day. Doyle hits the kick-out block while the combo block by the right tackle and right guard get a lot of movement up to the second level. It clogs up the lanes for the linebackers and Taylor uses his vision and elusiveness to create yardage. Runs like this are commonplace for the Colts, especially over this past six-game stretch.
Defensively, the Colts run a 4-3 scheme headed by Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus. Eberflus has turned his defense into a primarily Cover 3 and Cover 1 heavy defense. When he came to the Colts in 2018, it was largely a Cover 2 defense, but that will change this season. With their adaptability in coverage, disguising coverages on the back end has never been better. Like the Bills, they do a lot of man match coverage, which is what led to Ben Roethlisberger’s pick-six against the Bills. Given the Steelers’ love of throwing the ball underneath, it would not be a surprise to see heavy single-high looks with match-man principles underneath to try and slow down the passing attack.
Players to Watch
QB Phillip Rivers
Rivers has been delightful to watch this season as he continues a strong season. Despite playing through a bad toe injury, Rivers has managed this offense nicely. The veteran expertise he has brought to the position, especially from a mental standpoint, has opened up the offense in a lot of ways. He can still make most of the throws to any part of the field, and while he is not mobile, Rivers has no trouble getting the ball out in a hurry underneath. Still, with a depleted offensive line this week, Rivers has his work cut out for himself.
OL Quenton Nelson
It is impossible to talk about Indianapolis and not mention potentially best player. Quenton Nelson is a monster who brings everything NFL teams to want in a guard to the table. He has the mauler nastiness to throw people into the ground. Nelson has the football IQ to sniff out stunts and stop them in their tracks. But perhaps most importantly, Nelson is a certified people mover. This running game’s base is powered by Nelson as he moves guys out of their gaps with ease. Now, Nelson had a tough time against Cam Heyward last season, so if there is anyone who can stop Nelson, it is Heyward.
DL DeForest Buckner
After coming over in a trade from San Francisco, the Colts have reaped the benefits of DeForest Buckner’s talents. He has been one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL this season bar none. Buckner is fourth in the NFL among interior pass rushers in quarterback hits. His blend of explosiveness and power was felt by the Steelers last year. Buckner registered a sack, four pressures, two quarterback hits, and two quarterback hurries last year against the Steelers. They will have to slow him down and protect Roethlisberger.
Matchups to Watch
Nyheim Hines vs Steelers LBs
The Steelers are down to only three inside linebackers for this game with Ulysees Gilbert III heading to IR and Marcus Allen missing the game with a stinger. That leaves them without a strong coverage linebacker, and the Colts have an elite receiving back in Nyheim Hines. Hines is their gadget do-it-all guy similar to JD McKissic for the Washington Football Team. Whatever the Steelers have to do to prevent a repeat of that Week 13 performance, they have to do it. Especially with heavy pressure coming, it should be clear that quick passes to the running back are going to be used in high dosage on Sunday.
Steelers Pass Rush vs Colts Offensive Line
This is the elephant in the room. It is like a cloud hanging over the head of the Colts’ offense. They will be without both of the starting tackles, and they leave a lot of room for TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith to create pressure on Rivers. It was already noted that the Colts offensive line had trouble with Heyward last year, and with Stephon Tuitt now back in the mix as well, the Steelers pass rush could be a menace that this Colts offense is bugged by the entire game. If the Steelers want to win this game, the pass rush will need to be a big factor and perhaps create a turnover.