What’s Next for T.J. Watt and the Steelers?
With the heat of the NFL offseason, free agency and the NFL Draft included, on the horizon, there are a plethora of huge decisions for the Pittsburgh Steelers to make from a roster construction standpoint. An extension for T.J. Watt seems like a formality at this point, especially after the teams owner Art Rooney II expressed their obvious desire to keep the former Defensive Player of the Year in black and gold for the foreseeable future. The teams first-round selection in 2017 is entering the last year of second contract with the club and as his brother stated publicly, there aren’t many star players that are comfortable walking into a new campaign without long-term security for obvious reasons.
Since 2017, no NFL player has accrued more takedowns of the quarterback than Watt (108) with Myles Garrett, who has recently requested a trade out of the AFC North, trailing him with 102 during that same time frame. From an individual accolades perspective, there isn’t a defensive player in the league that has accomplished more in his era. Watt seems to be happy in Pittsburgh and with that feeling reciprocated on the other end, it’s understandable that the two sides would want this relationship to continue. The only question remaining is at what cost?
2024 was another productive campaign for the Steelers captain, reaching double digit sacks for the sixth time in an eight-year span. It was certainly a strong output but one that fell short of the incredibly lofty standards that he’s set during his time in the Steel City. His underlying metrics such as his 11.8% pressure rate was the lowest of his career, per Sports Info Solutions. And he wasn’t quite as dominant on a down to down basis, particularly down the stretch. Some of that can certainly be attributed to the amount of attention he received in the form of chip blocks from tight ends and running backs, taking away his speed approach to win the outside shoulder. Figuring out ways to combat how offenses are negating his playmaking should be near the top of the priority list for the coaching staff and Watt himself this offseason.
Right now, he’s the fourth highest paid edge rusher from an AAV standpoint at $28M per season, trailing only New York’s Brian Burns ($28.2M), Jacksonville’s Josh Hines-Allen ($28.25M) and San Francisco’s Nick Bosa at a whopping $34M per season. It’s safe to say that his contract was well-negotiated at the time and has aged gracefully, for both parties. Figuring out the next number seems like it might be a bit trickier because there aren’t very many pass rushers that are this productive into their 30s. Since 2020, only four players 31-years old or older have finished a season ranking inside the top-ten sack leaders.
The absolute floor for his next deal is likely akin to what Danielle Hunter signed a year ago with the Houston Texans, a two-year contract giving amounting to $24.5M per season but even that feels low. Older veterans such as Trey Hendrickson and Khalil Mack are in line for paydays this spring, as well. Perhaps, it’s as simple as tacking on another two years to Watt’s current deal without giving him a raise at all, allowing him to remain as one of the top paid players at his position. Whatever that number comes out to, it feels like this negotiation won’t drag on into training camp because both sides have incentive to get this done swiftly.
For Watt, there isn’t really anything for him to accomplish in the regular season and the NFL may as well go ahead and start fitting him for a gold jacket following his eventual retirement. However, the postseason is a different story. Pittsburgh has yet to win a playoff game during his tenure and he’s currently lacking that signature, gamebreaking moment that so many Steelers legends in the past have on their resume. There’s still time for that to change but the entire organization needs to feel an immense amount of pressure and urgency to make a serious push before Watt’s no longer an impact player defensively. This type of player rarely comes around and to leave this generation without anything to show for it would be a colossal failure.