Where Does T.J. Watt Rank in NFL DPOY Race?
Despite a very quiet performance in Thursday night’s 24-19 loss to the Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers star outside linebacker T.J. Watt is still the odds-on favorite to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year with +105 odds, according to FanDuel Sportsbook.
Houston Texans edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter are the next closest to Watt but it’s by a wide margin. Anderson has +1100 odds, while Hunter is at +1400. Green Bay Packers safety Xavier McKinney (+1400), Cincinnati Bengals defensive end Trey Hendrickson (+1600) and Cleveland Browns defensive end Myles Garrett (+1700) round out the top 6.
This has been a weird season across the NFL landscape. Seems bizarre to me that Watt is on pace for his worst full season since like 2018 and is the heavy favorite for DPOY despite Thursday nights disappearance. pic.twitter.com/qCkFGgFDdT
— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) November 25, 2024
As of right now, Watt is 12th in sacks and 50th in pressures in the NFL. Watt’s pressure rate this season is only at 8.9%, per Next Gen Stats. it should be noted that teams have chipped Watt at the highest rate in the league this season. Nevertheless, he’s not getting after the quarterback like in years past. It might be wise for the Steelers to move Watt around more or try to utilize him on stunts at a higher rate.
Through 11 games, Watt has recorded 40 tackles (28 solos), 7.5 sacks, 13 tackles for loss, 18 quarterback hits, four forced fumbles and two fumble recoveries.
As mentioned, Watt was nowhere to be found on Thursday night. He registered four total tackles (one solo) and a tackle for loss. He was shutout in the sacks department and recorded only one quarterback pressure. On the flip side, Myles Garrett went off. Garrett had three sacks, four pressures and a forced fumble in the first half alone. He had three pressures and two sacks against left tackle Dan Moore Jr. In total, Garrett had a whopping eight quarterback pressures.
Garrett is now only the seventh player in NFL history with seven straight 10+ sack seasons. His three sacks in the first half, marked the second game this season where he’s had 3+ first half sacks. No player has had two such games in a season since 2012, according to Pro Football Network.
Heading into Week 12, Watt was the favorite to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year at -185. Garrett wasn’t even in the top 9, but Garrett’s performance on Thursday night boosted his chances to +1700 at winning DPOY for the second consecutive year. Garrett now ranks third in sacks with 10, behind only Danielle Hunter (10.5 sacks) and Trey Hendrickson, who has 11.5.
New York Giants star nose tackle Lawrence was in the running for DPOY, but his pass rush production has stalled in recent weeks. Xavier McKinney leads the league in interceptions with seven, while Will Anderson Jr. has 9.5 sacks. Anderson has more sacks than Watt, but he’s well behind in other major statistical categories.
While Watt is the odds-on favorite heading into Week 13, the NFL DPOY race could be wide open if he has consecutive dud games in the final stretch. Garrett very well could bring home the award for a second straight year if he records the most sacks in the league and has more performances like he did on Thursday night.
Garrett put Watt on notice after Thursday night’s win, too.
“I have a lot of respect for him… But I’m number 1. That’s from Edge 1 to Defensive Player of the Year. I’m the guy. That runs through me,” Garrett said in his post-game interview with Amazon Prime. “There’s no other person being schemed or planned against like I am. It just shows, you can throw that out the window. I’m gonna find a way.”
RELATED: Myles Garrett Sends Message to T.J. Watt after Browns Win: ‘I’m Number 1’
If Watt is going to continue to be erased by double teams then someone else needs to step up and make a game changing play. Looking at you Fitzpatrick. Time to earn that 18 mil.