The Pittsburgh Steelers are an incredible 5-2 after seven weeks of the 2024 NFL season, and FanDuel has the 2024 NFL win total for the Steelers set at 9.5. My prediction for the Steelers in 2024 was under 8.5 wins, and going under now would mean an epic collapse. I’ll happily slurp up that plate of crow.
The collapse isn’t coming. The Steelers will likely lose a head-scratcher. They’re not immune to the NFL’s unique brand of chaos, but over eight wins is a near-lock.
Most prognosticators saw the QB room, the lack of depth at wide receiver, and an aging defensive front seven and handicapped disaster.
Combine those holes with an AFC North that many predicted to be the toughest division in the league, plus an impossibly hard second-half schedule, and it’s easy to see why so many thought Mike Tomlin would finally suffer his first losing season.
Tomlin’s winning-season streak will remain intact. Here are three reasons the black and gold should sail over 9.5 wins.
1. The Offense is Improving
Russell Wilson’s first start this season was a revelation for the Steelers’ offense. The veteran QB commanded the offense in a way Justin Fields couldn’t, hitting targets downfield and stretching the New York Jets defense.
Wilson’s ability to keep the Jets’ defense honest finally gave Najee Harris room to run. He gained over 100 yards for only the second time this season in Week 7. The Steelers ultimately scored 37 points.
I don’t expect the offense to be that prolific every week, but the Steelers have the league’s second-best turnover differential (+9). If the offense can convert those turnovers to touchdowns with Russ, look out. 11 or 12 wins are possible.
2. The AFC North is Weak
The Baltimore Ravens are a legitimate Super Bowl contender. The Browns and the Bengals? Not so much. They’re a combined 4-10, though the season-ending injury to Browns QB Deshaun Watson may be addition by subtraction.
I am curious to see if Jameis Winston’s big arm provides a spark to this beleaguered Browns team, but he’s interception-prone. Winston has thrown 99 picks in his decade-long NFL career.
The Bengals are 3-4 through seven weeks, but those wins came against the New York Giants, the Carolina Panthers, and the Cleveland Browns. Joe Burrow is always dangerous, and his arm gives the Bengals a shot against any team.
According to FanDuel Research, the Bengals’ defense ranks 24th in the NFL. The Steelers shouldn’t have many problems handling their divisional foes from Cincinnati.
3. The Steelers Own the Ravens
The Steelers beat the Ravens twice last year and have won seven out of the previous ten games versus Baltimore. I can’t readily explain why the Steelers have the Ravens’ number, but they do.
Granted, one of last year’s wins came in the last week of the season. Baltimore had locked up the AFC’s first-seed and rested most of their starters, while the Steelers needed a win to get into the postseason.
Still, the Steelers’ impressive record against a Ravens team that has habitually finished ahead of them in the standings through the past half-decade is impressive. The Steelers aren’t scared of the Ravens. Are you?
A split with the Ravens would almost guarantee a ten-win season.