Are the Steelers Super Bowl Odds Incorrect?
Despite a 5-2 record, the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds remain much longer than those of the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens. At 40 to 1 (+4000), the Steelers are a longer shot than the elite AFC teams, and a few not-so-elite NFC teams.
Which begs the question: Are the Pittsburgh Steelers mispriced?
And if they are, should you bet Pittsburgh to win it all? Let’s look at the FanDuel odds and see if we can find a reason to bet on the Steelers to win their seventh Lombardi Trophy.
Winter is Coming
The Steelers have exceeded expectations through the first seven weeks of the 2024 NFL Regular Season. They’re four wins away from surpassing their pre-flop regular season win total of 8.5.
FanDuel Research has the Steelers with longer odds (+4000) than teams with worse records. The Cincinnati Bengals (+2800), the Dallas Cowboys (+3300), and the San Francisco 49ers (+850) are all shorter shots.
There isn’t much market belief for the Steelers right now. They’ve yet to play an elite team, so we can’t handicap how they’ll handle a productive offense. We’ll soon find out.
The Steelers play their AFC North games in the final two months of 2024. Games against the Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens will ultimately reveal whether the Steelers are contenders.
Buried within that series of divisional games are games versus the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles. So, +4000 could very well be a buy-low spot on the Steelers’ Super Bowl odds if they win a majority of their second-half games.
Is Russ Dangerous?
Russell Wilson’s debut as Pittsburgh Steelers starting quarterback was dynamic. Despite a slow start, the veteran QB went 16/29 for 264 yards and two touchdown passes. The Steelers scored over 35 points for the first time in three years.
Yet, it wasn’t what Russ did for the passing game that made the Steelers offense so dangerous. His arm kept the Jets’ defense honest, and RB Najee Harris ran free. Harris finished the game with 102 rushing yards.
While Wilson’s first game finally unlocked the Steelers’ offense, it unlocked against a shambolic New York Jets team.
We have to find out if the Week 7 offensive outburst is sustainable.
The Steelers Super Bowl Odds Have Value
The Dallas Cowboys have shorter Super Bowl odds than the Steelers at +3300. That’s a head-scratcher. Yes, the AFC is a much deeper conference, and the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC goes through Kansas City. The Steelers, however, beat the Cowboys in Week 5.
The Steelers defense ranks second in points allowed per game (14.4). Pittsburgh also has the second-best turnover differential in the NFL (+9). A bet on the Steelers to win it all is a belief that Russell Wilson can play well enough to score over 20 points consistently.
I don’t know if the Steelers are or can become an elite NFL team. I still have doubts, but these odds will drop fast should the Steelers enter the AFC North portion of their schedule with a 7-2 record. If you want to buy the Steelers to win it all, buy now.
Read This Next
