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Bell: Five Bold Predictions for Steelers 2024 Season
Steelers Now analyst Derrick Bell gives five bold predictions for the Pittsburgh Steelers 2024 regular season.
Before the 2024 NFL season gets kicked off, it’s time to unleash some hot takes. To clarify the real intent behind this article, it’s supposed to detail bold claims that are believable enough to get me to buy into but you can’t really hold them over my head in the event that these events don’t come to fruition. This is one of the more fun and engaging articles that I write on a yearly basis and hopefully I’ll be able to hit on a couple of these this time around. Here we go!
6+ Sacks for Keeanu Benton
After being selected in the second round out of Wisconsin, Benton’s rookie season should be considered a success even though he registered just one sack which came week three against the Raiders. Mike Tomlin talks frequently about the jump he expects from guys heading into their second season in the pros but I think that Benton has a chance to skyrocket in 2024 and eventually begin earning some national attention. A 5+ sack jump seems significant but there is data some data to back up this prediction. Among the Steelers starting defensive lineman, Benton led the unit in both pressure rate and pass-rush win-rate. So why wasn’t the sack production there?
For one, sacks can be a statistic influenced by luck but also situation. For example, Larry Ogunjobi (132) nearly tripled Benton’s opportunities (52) rushing the passer on third down last season. Maybe Pittsburgh was bringing the rookie along slowly last season but that simply cannot afford to happen again this fall and if it does, I’d consider it coaching malpractice. Benton has a pretty quick get-off, a patented club-rip move and has even showed off some new counters this preseason. I liked him quite a bit as a prospect but I’m even more optimistic about him now and think there’s a reality in which he’s their best interior lineman as early as this season.
RELATED: George Pickens, Keeanu Benton Primed for Breakouts?
10 or Fewer Catches for Darnell Washington
Hey, I promised bold takes but I never said that they would all be positive ones! Last season, Arthur Smith’s Falcons dropped back to pass a whopping 366 times with multiple tight ends on the field and many people are assuming that Washington’s usage will on the upswing because of that. Maybe this goes against conventional wisdom but I just don’t see it playing out that way for a couple of reasons. One: Washington was on the field 18 passing snaps in the preseason but was left in to block on 11 of those, running just seven routes. I think that offensive coordinator Arthur Smith is going to feature a decent amount of max protection looks to make Russell Wilson feel comfy in the pocket. Washington is about as good of a pass blocker as you’ll find for the position because of his size and length and this was all over his college tape at Georgia.
Lastly, I just don’t think Washington is ever going to be a high volume pass catcher. Even during his breakout junior campaign in college, he only registered 25 receptions but many wrote that off because he was sharing a position group with an eventual top pick in Brock Bowers. Washington’s value in the receiving game mostly comes as a seam runner and outlet in the flats but despite his size, he’s wasn’t overly impressive in contested catch situations when I visited training camp. Because of towering build, he lacks the lower body flexibility to develop into a full route tree runner. The good news is that none of this is overly surprising to me and I still think he can be a very useful player. With improved hand usage as a blocker, Washington brings a brand of physicality that is sorely lacking around the NFL. But that may the extent of his impact in year two.
The Steelers Defense Lead the Entire NFL in Sacks
This wouldn’t have qualified as a hot take a couple of years ago but after the leading the NFL in sacks in 2021, the unit has fallen to 17th in 2022 and 11th this past season. My reasoning goes far beyond my love for Keeanu Benton but this front seven has a chance to be pretty special and one that could seriously carry this team through tough stretches otherwise. T.J. Watt is still very much in the prime of his career and so long as he’s healthy is a good bet for at least 15.0 sacks on his own. Alex Highsmith’s advanced metrics tell us that he should be in for some positive regression in this regard as well, especially if he can further fine tune his game to counter offensive tackles sitting on his spin move. Even if Cam Heyward’s lost a little juice and his best days are behind him, he should still be more effective in this regard than his replacements were last season.
The main characters have been around quite a while and get plenty of attention but the supporting cast members are the real reason behind my optimism. Patrick Queen is an excellent blitzer, whether as a pick player or looper. Elandon Roberts and Payton Wilson both fall into this category for different reasons as well. And while Nick Herbig is stuck as the third fiddle on the depth chart, it feels like they have no choice but to implement some third down packages to get him on the field. With more stability and speed in the backend, I wonder if the coaching staff can turn the knob up just a tad on their blitz rate this season which could lead to some additional opportunities. Ultimately, I’m buying the combination of star power and depth for 2024.
10 Touchdown Grabs for George Pickens
Last season, I predicted a breakout for George Pickens in year two but fell short on my claim that he would reach double digit touchdowns. But I’m doubling down in 2024! Despite underwhelming quarterback play, we saw him take a major leap forward with the ball in his hands, improving his yards after catch metrics from a 2.1 average as a rookie to a whopping 6.5 mark as a sophomore. All this proved was that Pickens was capable of being more than just a vertical threat that could punish defenses on back shoulders/go balls and that the Steelers offense is at their best when #14 gets the ball in his hands. I think they’re going to do everything to make that happen this fall, including moving him around the formation more and being more creative in order to keep him engaged on a play by play basis.
The quarterback play should be better but by how much is a legit question that we still need answered. Having said that, Courtland Sutton finished last season with 10 touchdown grabs and I think Pickens is a better player at this stage of their careers. Even in the somewhat likely event that Justin Fields takes over at some point this season, those two were rapidly developing quite the connection during training camp, especially in the red zone during seven shots or team periods. Plus, who else are the Steelers going to throw the ball to? Pat Freiermuth should also reap the benefits of a better ecosystem but the rest of the wide receiver room desperately lacks talent. And finally, Pickens has all of the ability, with plus body control, hands and loose movement skills for his size, in the world to become an established number one guy and i think he answers the bell this year.
7+ Starts for Justin Fields
I still believe that there is a plausible outcome that Russell Wilson has a semi-bounce back in Pittsburgh, helps keep them competitive with a low-volume approach and ultimately maintains the job throughout the season. But, this is a bold predictions column and Justin Fields starting 7+ games is absolutely one that I can get behind for a couple of reasons. For starters, there seems to be a misconception around the two quarterbacks, especially as it relates to their strengths and weaknesses. They are both outside the numbers, vertically gifted throwers who thrive out of structure. Both players have a tendency to hold on to the ball for an eternity, take a bunch of sacks and frustrate you at times by avoiding the middle of the field.
The biggest difference between the two is age and athleticism, even though Wilson’s mobility looked better in 2023 than it did the year prior, likely due to improved conditioning. But at 35-years old, he’s not getting any younger which isn’t conducive to this particular play style and while he’s remained admirably healthy throughout his career, he’s already dealt with one soft tissue injury which kept him off the field for most of camp. Even though Fields blew what I would consider as a huge opportunity to claim the starting quarterback job, his rushing ability is undeniable and could open up doors for what Smith wants to do on offense, particularly in the red zone and short yardage. This is such a unique situation because this could very well be the final chance for both players to get the opportunity to start in this league, meaning this season is of the utmost importance for the duo.
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