Bell: Nick Herbig Is the Next Star Steelers Linebacker
After his third straight game with a forced fumble, the rest of the NFL has to be wondering how they allowed Nick Herbig to fall all the way to the fourth round of the 2023 NFL Draft. Their loss has been the gain of the Pittsburgh Steelers, and I’m sure if they knew exactly how good he’d be this early on, even they’d have selected him earlier. This looks like a perfect marriage between a young pass rusher and a scheme that allows him to do what he does best: get after the quarterback.
After another impressive performance in the Steelers win over the Bengals on Sunday, the second-year pro was highly complimentary of the opportunistic culture that head coach Mike Tomlin and superstar teammate T.J. Watt has established in the burgh.
“He leads the league in forced fumbles since he’s been in the league,” Herbig said. “That’s the culture that coach Tomlin has built and these guys have laid the foundation for younger guys like me.”
Since being drafted, he’s given them more of a spark than any other reserve piece has given them in quite some time.
As that small sample size continues to grow, his numbers remain equally impressive. According to Next Gen Stats, his 21.1% pressure rate leads the team through 13 weeks, over half of his 31 total pressures on the season have come in the form of quick pressures, those that occur in less than 2.5 seconds. PFF tracks how often a pass rusher wins their rep against a blocker, Herbig’s 19.6% win rate ranks seventh among all NFL edge rushers that have played at least 20% of their teams snaps. He’s benefitting some from the amount of attention dedicated to the other side of the ball but he’s winning island reps against some of the leagues more established left tackles.
When you look at the film, it’s easy to come to the conclusion that Herbig is far more than just a key role player, but rather a truly dynamic, impact defender that’s on the rise. Pass rushers don’t always break out this early and there’s plenty of guys that were drafted ahead of him that have accrued less production in far more opportunities.
So, how did so many teams miss on this guy? It’s actually quite simple. Herbig is an outlier that is beating the odds. His 31.25-inch arms are in the second percentile for edge defenders and he bulked up for the combine, weighing in at 240 pounds, which placed him in the third percentile for weight at the position.
Guys with that sort of profile don’t typically get drafted early and will get removed from teams boards entirely before the process gets too far into the weeds. But there is a lesson to be learned here for everyone involved. The most important trait for edge rushers, particularly in this 3-4 system that allows guys to rush from a two-point stance, often times in a wide-nine technique, is their ability to get off the ball quickly. Not only is Herbig’s first step very good, it’s undoubtedly elite to the point where some of his best wins come from his ability to explode up the arc and capture the corner before offensive tackles can even hit their landmark. To overcome the odds as a historical outlier from a measurable standpoint, you must possess some sort of trump card. In this particular case, that’s explosiveness.
Herbig strip sack. Wilson scoop and score. Remember this play in 3 years when both are Pro Bowlers. pic.twitter.com/PPQEWSvTUz
— Andrew Fillipponi (@ThePoniExpress) December 1, 2024
If you pull up his film this season, you’ll see some special reps against players like Rashawn Slater and Ronnie Stanley who have been among the best left tackles in football. He’s not compiling stats against backup caliber competition. There’s nothing fake about his statistical or film profile in 2024. Even when guys are athletic enough to not get torched by his explosiveness, he’s got the bend through contact when guys are able to get hands on him. One thing that stood out on his college film that has translated is that he has an understanding of how to use his hands to pry free in close quarters. His feet are light, he can change directions at the blink of an eye and you can see the wheels already spinning at a rapid rate in terms of continually gaining a better understanding of how to set up his moves and win. Then to cap it all off, the closing burst once he captures a departure points through the offensive line is dangerous.
Nick Herbig (+130 to record a sack) forces the fumble, and the Steelers are in business. @FDSportsbook
pic.twitter.com/uz5TqOgTnh— Covers (@Covers) November 22, 2024
Right now, he’s one of the best kept secrets in the NFL and it could stay that way for a little while longer with Alex Highsmith expected to be full go this week versus the Cleveland Browns. Although he’s dealt with injuries this season, he’s also been very disruptive when he’s been out there and at this point, has a more well-rounded all around skill set. This isn’t and shouldn’t be about turning this into a starting debate fueled by drama, it’s about embracing the embarrassment of riches at their current disposal. Three of their best players on their entire team all play the same position, how can we get the most bang for our buck on a weekly basis?
For starters, I think you’ll see them experiment with some sub packages where all three of them are on the field at the same time. In the first couple weeks of the season, they rolled it out there a couple times with Herbig lined up on the interior alongside Heyward. With Watt and Highsmith more established players that have been mainstays in their roles, it’ll likely be up to the Wisconsin product to evolve his game in order to be given even more opportunities. Isolating his quickness against slow-footed guards with less reach could be pretty advantageous for this group in the long run. Can they incorporate some simulated pressures or infuse more twists/stunts to create even more chaos against some of the better quarterbacks that they may see come time for the postseason? That remains to be seen but the possibilities for this bunch are endless.
There’s an obvious need to manage the workload of the starters as well and that’s something that they haven’t been able to do as much of this season because of the injuries to the depth chart. There’s no reason for any of these guys to accrue a 90% snap share when there’s more than enough talent to the point where there’s not a significant drop off and you can simultaneously keep everyone fresher and hopefully, healthier in the process. At 9-3, the Steelers are going to make the postseason and in order to break through from their playoff win drought, this trio has to be at it’s absolute peak.
And while we’re talking about the future, don’t even bother including Herbig’s name in any trade hypothetical scenarios in the spring. Pittsburgh shouldn’t even entertain phone calls for Herbig. So long as the vibes and chemistry in the room remains solid, there’s hardly a draft selection that should change that. You wouldn’t believe it if you didn’t study the league through a big picture, non-Steelers centric lens but it’s actually quite difficult to find needle moving pass rush help outside the first round of the NFL Draft. Even though he’s not a “starter” on the depth chart, you can never have enough pass rushers. This scheme is far too dependent on this position and he’s proven enough in my eyes to view him as a building block for a defense that is otherwise getting older in some integral spots.
Dozens of teams envy Pittsburgh’s stockpile of trench talent. While no organization is perfect at scouting and developing every positional group, they’ve mastered the art of edge rushing. It’s not luck because the track record speaks for itself. This is a scouting department, front office and coaching staff that is perfectly in sync with the archetype of player they covet coupled with the requisite attitude necessary to unlock their full potential.
At this point, it shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone. The Steelers have found themselves yet another star pass rusher.
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