The final stretch of the regular season schedule for the Pittsburgh Steelers is a tough one, and it begins with an inter-state clash with the Philadelphia Eagles. There’s been some internal drama for those guys this week but don’t let that distract you from the fact that this is arguably the hottest team in the NFL that’s riding a nine-game win streak.
Their front office made a huge splash in free agency when they lured star tailback Saquon Barley away from their division rival and inserted him into an offense that was already loaded with talent. The number one priority for Mike Tomlin’s crew this weekend will be to slow down the former top-five pick who is currently on pace to break Eric Dickerson’s record for most rushing yards in a single season.
When listening to the guys talk to the media this week, it’s pretty clear how much respect the defense has for Barkley’s skill set. Top linebacker Patrick Queen was quick to shower praise on the Penn State product, “He’s unstoppable right now… He’s definitely the number one back in the league this year.” Statistically, it’s impossible to argue otherwise since the Eagles are ranked first in EPA/rush by a wide margin while scoring a healthy amount of points.
In terms of what sets Barkley apart from other talented backs in the NFL, defensive coordinator Teryl Austin mentioned his ability to do things at his size that others simple can’t. “He’s strong. He’s fast. He’s got good vision… When he gets to the second level, you’re not talking about a small back, you’re talking about a big back that runs fast. When he breaks these long runs, you see him get on safeties, get on corners, boom, he breaks ankles and he’s out. Barkley is currently second in the league in explosive runs of 15+ yards behind on Jahmyr Gibbs in Detroit according to PFF ‘s tracking data.
Austin’s got a difficult task on his plate this week and he’ll have to devise a game plan to slow down this Eagles rushing attack without two starters: defensive end Larry Ogunjobi and strong safety DeShon Elliott, both ofw whom have been declared out for this one.
Stylistically, Philly’s offensive philosophy has mostly remained the same over the years. They’re a nearly exclusive shotgun, spread based attack that features a lot of RPO’s but the small twist this year has been a little bit more 12 personnel mixed in. Their bread and butter is a lot of inside zone/split flow variations. On his own, Barkley is a great player and we all knew this well before this season kicked off but he’s become a special player in this environment. That’s because he’s now playing behind an elite offensive line that crushes people off the ball and specializes in synchronizing their double teams with one another. When you add in the affect that a rushing threat at quarterback has on this style, it makes things that much more difficult.
When you remove garbage time from the equation, this Steelers defense is right around average in terms of defending the run overall. They’re ranked 13th in rushing EPA/play and 16th in success rate but as a group they tackle exceptionally well and that’s something that they can hang their hat on. So far this season, this unit has missed just 47 tackles per PFR, which is the best figure in the league by a healthy margin. As is the case with Tomlin’s teams, they rally to the ball and getting Barkley down on first contact is going to be a huge deal in this one because of his ability to create hidden yardage.
What makes Barkley a force to be reckoned with and a perfect fit in this scheme specifically is that he’s just as comfortable running the ball from the gun as he is under center which isn’t the case for every back. In his younger years with the Giants, he would have a bit of a tendency to bounce runs outside that he shouldn’t but this year, he’s taken his game to another level because of his trust in who he’s running behind. His vision looks pristine, he’s hitting creases with jaw-dropping acceleration and he’s finishing runs by consistently falling forward on contact.
Winning the line of scrimmage is the Steelers best path forward to coming away victorious in this one. Without Ogunjobi, you’re going to see even more of Keeanu Benton and depth pieces behind him. You’ll never have to worry about Cam Heyward in this regard but the ability of the other guys to anchor down against these double teams on the interior is going to be crucial. The Eagles have mixed in some gap-scheme changeups, specifically to feature their center Cam Jurgens as a puller. Another thing to note is that they like running power away from the side of the three-technique to give their guys better down blocking angles but we’ve seen Elandon Roberts destroy those guys on the move on multiple occasions this season. On early downs, he has to be on the field and a real tone setter for this front.
The Steelers is going to have to make a decision on where they want to allocate their resources in this one but it feels like the best approach is to pack the paint and sell out versus the Eagles run game. When facing a light box this season, Barkley is averaging 6.7 yards per carry on limited chances. Normally that box safety role would belong to Elliott but how they decide to attack that in his absence is a little bit blurry considering the guys on the depth chart behind him. Minkah Fitzpatrick is a great run defender from depth but they’ve strayed away from removing him from his centerfield post this season.
According to SIS, against zone runs out of shotgun this season, the Steelers defense is allowing 5.1 yards per carry which ranks 28th league-wide. In order to pull off the upset, they’ve simply got to be much better in this one. If that means playing more single-high and leaving the Steelers corners on a bit of an island with the Eagles talented wide receiver duo of A.J. Brown and Devonta Smith then so be it. This offense is too talented up and down the depth chart to try and stop everything. You have to pick your poison, try and make this team more of a one-dimensional force rather than the juggernaut that they’ve been all season long. The Browns were the only team that has slowed Barkley down this season, holding him to 2.6 yards per carry and as a result, the Eagles only put up 20 points during that game.
It’s not going to be easy by any means but I would feel much more comfortable forcing Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts, who has been playing some fairly uninspired ball of late, to beat me through the air and hope the Steelers offense can hold up their end of the bargain.