Bell: Steelers Rushing Attack Running Out of Time
When the NFL dropped the regular season schedule, it was very apparent that this three week stretch of games where the Steelers would face the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens and Kansas City Chiefs would be their toughest date of the year. Coincidentally, this is also the time of the year where every team is aiming to hit their stride and play their best ball heading into the postseason. We have enough data now to figure out which teams are the top contenders but can Pittsburgh join that exclusive club? One of the the biggest obstacles in their way of that right is their lack of success running the football.
For a team that ranks second league-wide in total rushing attempts in 2024, the offense still hasn’t figured out a way to consistently move the ball in this regard. Entering Week 16, they’re ranked 23rd in rushing success rate and 26th in rushing EPA/play. Coming into the season following the offseason hire of Arthur Smith and an influx of investments along the offensive line, we knew that this was an organization attempted to establish it’s identity as a ground and pound operation that won with their bigs up front.
If you think back to Smith’s wildly successful stint with the Titans and even his less than impressive run with the Falcons, those offenses were founded on the idea that they can throttle you with under center runs. As of right now, only 33.6% of their running back attempts from under center looks are generating positive EPA (3rd-worst in the league) and because of that, this is an offense that is consistently finding themselves behind the sticks and forced to operate in second/third and long sequences far too often.
There’s a widespread frustration among the fan base regarding the amount of toss plays in the game plan on a weekly basis but that’s really just disguised as frustration with the amount of outside zone that they’re running. This concept, along with mid-zone to the weak side, has always been Smith’s bread and butter. A common coaching ideology with wide zone attacks is that you have to really rep it a ton to become a synchronized unit up front, to form cohesion throughout the trenches and for the backs to get a feel for how the plays will flow. With the results so underwhelming, it seems like this approach doesn’t necessarily fit the skill set of the players attempting to execute the plan.
Some of that can be linked back to several factors: youth, injuries and lack of talent, sure. Don’t forget that James Daniels, the teams original starter at right guard, was viewed as a good fit for this style offense but unfortunately got hurt earlier in the season. Their rookie first round pick Troy Fautanu has missed essentially the entirety of the season due to different injuries. If he doesn’t get hurt, Broderick Jones would likely be relegated to swing tackle duty and while his play has been better of late, he’s still been pretty underwhelming especially as a run blocker. 2024 was supposed to be a redshirt year for Mason McCormick but instead, he’s been thrust into action.
It rarely, if ever, boils down to just one thing when an operation is this unsuccessful and coaching certainly plays a part in this. The NFL is often confused for a developmental league but that’s simply not the case, so it’s unfair to blame the staff for lack of technical improvement for individual players. However, it’s pretty jarring to see a group with this many mental errors on a weekly basis where guys simply don’t know their assignments, leading to run throughs and the backs getting jolted at or behind the line of scrimmage on a frequent basis. Steelers running backs have been hit at or behind the line of scrimmage on 53.3% of their rushing attempts this season, the second highest rate in the league according to SIS.
Najee Harris is making guys miss and running through arm tackles at an absurd rate. Per PFF’s charting, his 59 forced missed tackles rank third best among tailback in the NFL. Jaylen Warren’s been banged up but his best contributions have come in the pass gaming. When you study both players, it’s pretty clear that neither of those guys are the one-cut and go style of running that typically thrive in an outside zone based system predicated on reading blocks outside in. They’re more north/south runners. It’s not that they can’t do other things but there is an art to outside zone run that they haven’t quite perfected just yet.
The question that this staff needs to figure out is where can they make adjustments? They’ve been a much better spread running team out of the shotgun this season, 8th best among NFL teams in positive play % despite only 105 attempts on such reps. It wouldn’t be a crazy idea to incorporate more power/counter runs given their success on such concepts last season during the second half of the year. With this offense living in so much 12 and 13 personnel, does they have enough pop up front to get into more duo, downhill style runs? No one knows for sure.
Their two most successful runs this season have been trap plays to take advantage of aggressive fronts and same-side outside zone tosses from the gun to access the perimeter. Those are great to have but neither are things that you can solely rely on for a run game to function over a long period of time. Those are more like change ups. This team is missing a fast ball though and until they find it, it’s difficult to see them moving past anything more than an average offense. The best teams in the league, the ones that will be playing into late January, are capable of beating you multiple different ways on both sides of the ball.
We know what this Steelers defense is capable of, a group that can go toe-to-toe with just about anybody up front and make like difficult for opposing offenses at the very least. Russell Wilson has even exceeded expectations to a degree and he’s provided those explosive plays in the form of deep passes down the field. But the down to down efficiency needs to come from the run game and that simply isn’t there right now. The clock is about to strike midnight on a team that has a theoretical identity but the actual execution of that isn’t close to being up to par.
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