Can Kenny Pickett Get from Clutch to Good — Again?

PITTSBURGH — By almost any available metric, second-year Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett has been near the bottom of the NFL when it comes to statistical evaluation.

Except one.

Pickett enters play in Week 7 50th in passer rating, 49th in adjusted net yards per attempt, 41st in success rate, 36th in yards per game, 53rd in touchdown percentage and 31st in interception percentage since the start of the 2022 season.

But in just 17 starts, he has five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter. That’s tied for third-most in the NFL since the start of 2022, and of the quarterbacks with five or more, Pickett has by far started the fewest games.

He’s in good company. Only Kirk Cousins (8), Justin Herbert (6) and Daniel Jones (6) have more, while Pickett is tied with Josh Allen, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

Furthermore, he’s converted on an absurd percentage of his possible game-winning drives. He has only had eight opportunities to win a game in the fourth quarter and has converted 62.5% of his attempts.

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A 2022 study of game-winning drive attempts dating back to 1994 had Brady as the best in NFL history, converting 56.7% of his chances (minimum 10 game-winning drives.) Pickett hasn’t done quite enough to enter that list yet, but if he remains on this pace, he might turn out to be one of the most cluch quarterbacks in the NFL.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback, Kenny Pickett runs with the ball in the game against the Cleveland Browns on September 18, 2023. – Ed Thompson/Steelers Now.

That’s great in a vacuum, but Pickett’s success in the fourth quarter when the game is on the line is a bit of a curiosity compared to his overall lack of success. Can the Steelers build the entire game out of fourth-quarter comebacks?

“We’d love to do that,” offensive coordinator Matt Canada said. “We’re looking at trying to win games, and at those points in time, Kenny steps up and has made some huge plays throughout his career here. He’s played 17 games now. I think he’s made those plays in big moments. Certainly, that’s the reason that he was drafted, the reason that he’s the starter, and I think we’ll continue to do that, and certainly we have to start faster and play better and all those things you’re mentioning. How we get to that point is a work in progress. Trying to find it with everybody.”

The process of going from just clutch — as he is right now — to both good and clutch should be a familiar one for Pickett. It’s the same blueprint he followed in college at Pitt. Through his first two full seasons at Pitt’s starter, Pickett was mediocre statistically but had delivered seven game-winning drives in the last two minutes of regulation of overtime. That was the most by any quarterback in program history, dating back to 1970 — and it wasn’t even close. The quarterback with the second-most had four, and all of his were field goals. Pickett’s seven were all touchdowns.

Two years later, he leapt to the top of draft boards as one of the top quarterbacks in the Class of 2022.

“I’m comfortable in those moments,” Pickett said. “I think we’re comfortable as a team and everyone’s confident in each other and what we’re doing. And we have belief that everyone is going to do their job to go win. So, I think that’s a positive. …

“Obviously, we’re going to try to have more success early on in the game. But if you’re in a position to win the game at the end, you’re doing okay. You’re in a position to go get the W.”

If Pickett can continue to convert on over 60% of his game-winning drive chances, that might work for now. But at some point, if he’s going to realize his potential as a first-round draft pick, the Steelers are going to have to find a way to get more of that production earlier in games.

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