Could Najee Harris Take a Step Back in 2024?

Pittsburgh Steelers RB Najee Harris
Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris during OTAs at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on May 28, 2024. -- Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

Pittsburgh Steelers running back Najee Harris during OTAs at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on May 28, 2024. -- Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

The Pittsburgh Steelers turned down the fifth-year option that would have paid running back Najee Harris $6.7 million in 2025. Instead, he is now set to become an unrestricted free agent next March. Many believe it will be Harris’ last season in Pittsburgh.

According to Brooke Pryor of ESPN, the organization wants to see how Harris and the RBs function in Arthur Smith’s offense before making a longer term commitment to him.

Anthony DiBona of Pro Football Network doesn’t envision things working out in Harris’ favor. He thinks Harris will take a step back this season in Smith’s scheme.

“Last year, Najee Harris made it a third consecutive season in which he ran for over 1,000 yards. Yet, despite his success, he could take a step back under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in 2024,” DiBona wrote.

“Although Smith had plenty of success with Derrick Henry while with the Tennessee Titans, his misuse of Robinson in Atlanta was confusing. Jaylen Warren also showed promise for the Steelers last season, and Pittsburgh added Cordarrelle Patterson in free agency, who is also familiar with Smith.”

Harris became the first player in Steelers history to run for 1,000 or more yards in each of the first three seasons of his career. In 2023, Harris had the best season of his career in terms of yards per carry as he rushed 255 times for 1,035 yards — a 4.1 yards per carry average — and he scored eight touchdowns. Harris had rushed for 3.9 and 3.8 yards per carry in each of his first two seasons.

Harris is the only player in the NFL with at least 250 carries in each of the last 3 seasons. He’s 1 of just 3 players with multiple since his rookie year in 2021, per ESPN Stats & Info.

The Jaylen Warren factor also might play a role in Harris regressing. Warren ran for 5.3 yards per carry, one of the best figures in the league in 2023. He ran 149 times for 784 yards and four touchdowns. He was also more involved in the passing game, catching 61 passes for 370 yards compared to 29 receptions for 170 yards for Harris. On a per-touch basis, Warren is more explosive and efficient than Harris. Warren’s running style fits more with Smith’s run schemes, too.

Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points thinks Warren’s carries in the red zone will increase substantially under Smith this season.

“Jaylen Warren might be more involved near the goal-line this season,” Barfield wrote. “The Steelers old staff gave Najee Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons. OC Arthur Smith loves to rotate RBs in the red-zone. Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 last year. Allgeier was at 37% and Patterson 19%

“Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well – Allgeier 45%, Patterson 32%, Hundley 21%.”

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