Edj Sports: Mike Tomlin’s FG to Go Up Six Points vs. Bears 2nd-Worst Coaching Decision of Week

PITTSBURGH — Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin’s decision to kick a field goal late in his teams Monday night again against the Chicago Bears was one of the worst coaching decisions of the week in the NFL, according to Edj Sports.

The Steelers faced a 4th and 4 at the Chicago 34-yard line, when Tomlin elected to send Chris Boswell onto the field to push the Pittsburgh lead from three points to six.

Boswell did so, but the six-point lead with nearly three minutes remaining was a tenuous one, and Chicago quarterback Justin fields showed why shortly thereafter, leading the Bears on a 10-play go ahead touchdown drive. The only problem for Chicago was that they left Ben Roethlisberger with too much time, and the Steelers drove back down the field to set up a game-winning Boswell field goal.

That could’ve been avoided if the Steelers had gone for it on fourth and four. With Chicago down to one time out, a conversion on fourth and one more first down would’ve secure the win for the Steelers.

The decision to kick it had some risk, as well. Boswell has missed nearly 10% of his career chances from over 50 yards. According to Edj Sports’ algorithm, attempting the field goal left the Steelers with a 77.1% chance of winning the game, while going for it would have given them an 82.5% chance of winning.

The -5.4% game-winning probability lost on a coaching decision was the second-most of the week, behind only Dallas Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy punting from his 45-yard line on a 4th and 1 against the Broncos.