ESPN FPI Gives Steelers Considerably High Odds for Top-10 Pick in 2025

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven’t had a losing season since 2003, but ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) projects that 2024 will be the year that the Steelers’ 20-year streak ends. The Steelers only trail the Dallas Cowboys for the most consecutive seasons without having a losing record. Dallas did not have a losing season from 1965-85.

The Steelers are projected to have the 13th overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft, while the team has an 11.9% chance of having a top=5 pick and a 30.9% chance of picking in the top-10.

Picking at No. 13 pretty much guarantees that Mike Tomlin will have his first losing season as the Steelers head coach. The Las Vegas Raiders held the 13th overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft after an 8-9 season.

Outside of trading up for Devin Bush at 10th overall in the 2019 NFL Draft, the Steelers haven’t had a pick as high as No. 13 since drafting Ben Roethlisberger at 11th overall in the 2004 NFL Draft. The last time the Steelers had a top-10 pick was in 2000 when they selected Plaxico Burress at No. 8.

Pittsburgh Steelers general manager Omar Khan during the 2024 NFL Draft at UPMC Rooney Sports Complex on April 25, 2024. — Alan Saunders / Steelers Now

ESPN’s FPI projection of the Steelers having a 30.9% chance of picking in the top-10 is considerably high. The Steelers’ daunting schedule in 2024 certainly could derail things, however. This could be Mike Tomlin’s toughest challenge ever.

The Steelers’ final eight games are against teams expected to have winning records, 6-of-8 expected to win over 10 games. On paper, it’s the hardest final eight games in the NFL, according to Warren Sharp of Sharp Football. All six of their AFC North divisional games come in that span, too.

Colin Cowherd of FS1 thinks it’s the toughest back-end of a schedule that he’s ever seen.

“That is the toughest schedule I have ever seen, (from) Thanksgiving on, in league history,” Cowherd said.

“Did you see the last six quarterbacks Pittsburgh faces?” Cowherd added. “[Joe] Burrow, Deshaun Watson, Jalen Hurts, Lamar Jackson, [Patrick] Mahomes, and Burrow. Mike Tomlin is going to be on network broadcasting. And, by the way, I predict he’ll be great. I’ve talked to two network execs who would hire Mike Tomlin tomorrow.”