First Round QB Pick Is a Gamble, But a Necessary One for Steelers
Since 2010, the first round quarterback hit rate is low, but the Steelers will have to keep making that gamble to find their next franchise future.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have been in search of their future franchise quarterback since the retirement of Ben Roethlisberger following the 2021 season. They are approaching their fourth draft since his retirement; with one first-round pick at the position that didn’t work out. Despite this, eventually, the Steelers will have to roll the dice again–even if it is the ultimate gamble.
Last year, ESPN’s Bill Barnwell put together a great outlook on the quarterback position since the 2010 NFL Draft in the first round. Of the 43 first-round quarterbacks selected, only 16 panned out to be solid starters or better. Keep in mind, the title of “franchise” or “future hall of famer” quarterback was even more limited to seven and three respectively.
For the percentage lovers, that’s a 37% chance your first-round selection will pan out to be a solid starter or better, 23% they are your franchise’s future, and less than 7% they will perform at a hall of fame level.
Take this a step further.
Of those 43 quarterbacks, Only nine have made a conference championship appearance. Only four of those quarterbacks have taken their team to the Super Bowl. Only one has a Super Bowl ring…
As it stands since 2010, you the reader have a better chance of winning some form of a lottery prize than an NFL team does of their first-round quarterback taking them to a Super Bowl championship (2.86% vs 2.33%.)
The Steelers eventually will have to take another chance in the draft. A fourth-round success like Dak Prescott or a seventh-round journey like Brock Purdy is even more unlikely. It may be next year. Or the year after. Or even this year.
So if, say, Shedeur Sanders falls to them at 21… with an offensive line that should improve, a retooled receiver room, and an on-the-rise running back primed to take the leap… it might be the time to purchase that ticket in Pittsburgh.