The Pittsburgh Steelers got their revenge against the Cleveland Browns this past week, beating the Brownies 27-14 and covering the six-point spread. According to the most recent FanDuel NFL odds, the Steelers are +5.5 road underdogs against the Philadelphia Eagles this week.
The Steelers are 10-3 and now hold the “pole position” in the AFC North race. Awaiting the black and gold is a ten-day house of horrors featuring the Eagles, the Baltimore Ravens, and the Kansas City Chiefs.
While the lookahead lines aren’t out for the Ravens and Chiefs games, here are some points worth considering as the Steelers push through this holiday season, hopefully to a home playoff game in January.
A Philly Shootout
The Eagles and Steelers have productive offenses, averaging 26.3 and 24.8 points per game, respectively.
Both teams excel at stopping the run, too. The Steelers allow an average of 91.8 yards per game, and the Eagles 105.8. These teams also play the time of possession game, both ranking in the top four in TOP per game.
Hurts and Barkley give the Eagles the advantage on the ground. The Steelers’ offense must score points fast and pressure the Eagles to pass.
The Steelers will also have full rest and won’t be fully rested again until the season’s final game against the Cincinnati Bengals. I’d take the Steelers to cover the 5.5 and the game total over 43.5. I like +6 even better.
Ravens Game Goes Under
The last time these teams exceeded 40 points in a game was in 2020, with the Steelers winning 28-24.
For whatever reason, Ravens QB Lamar Jackson struggles against his division rivals. Jackson is 2-5 in seven starts versus the Steelers, with only five touchdown passes and eight interceptions.
The Steelers will, once again, have to drag this road game against the Ravens into the mud. To win, they’ll have to win turnovers and time of possession.
I’ll go under any posted total of 42.5 or higher.
Chiefs are Surgeons
Christmas Day is a real problem spot for the Steelers.
The Steelers will have played the Ravens only four days prior. Andy Reid’s game plans are more cohesive than any other coach in the league. Mahomes can execute any offensive game plan with surgical precision.
The only chance the Steelers have here is to grab a timely interception. Mahomes has thrown 11 picks through Week 14. Yet, he’s cleaned up his game considerably, throwing only two in the previous six weeks.
The Chiefs’ defense struggled in recent weeks but will have an opportunity to regain its form against a worn-out Steelers offensive front. Kansas City is still elite at stopping the run, allowing only 88.3 yards per game.
Without a running game, the Steelers will likely get forced into long third downs. The offense can better navigate these long passing downs with Wilson, but playing behind the sticks too often is a recipe for disaster.
The Chiefs will likely be short favorites in this game. I’ll take them to cover.