Jaylen Warren Shines in One Key Stat
No one in the NFL breaks tackles like Pittsburgh Steelers running back Jaylen Warren. Last season, Warren was in his own stratosphere when it came to tackle-breaking efficiency against 7+ defenders in the box, according to a graphic posted by Ryan Heath of Fantasy Points Data.
One cool way to look at missed tackles forced is filtering for plays with 7+ defenders in the box.
This describes explosiveness on "typical" carries, and levels the playing field between players w/ different roles
Jaylen Warren still passes with flying colors.@FantasyPtsData pic.twitter.com/kQ2UGg62pD
— Ryan Heath (@RyanJ_Heath) July 9, 2024
In 2023, Warren ranked first in missed tackles forced per touch, fifth in yards after contact per touch and seventh in explosive play rate, according to Heath.
“Efficiency-wise, Warren has consistently outperformed much of the league as well as teammate Najee Harris,” Heath wrote. “Still, Harris has continued receiving the majority of the rushing workload (52.4% of team rush attempts to Warren’s 30.6%). Volume has been Warren’s only missing piece.
“Efficiency does not always lead to volume at the RB position, but Warren does not sport the usual markings of the efficiency fallacy. Though he’s five inches shorter, Warren weighs comfortably above 200 pounds and has a higher BMI than Harris. Even on plays with 8+ men in the box, Warren’s 4.42 yards per carry average (7th) remained excellent and significantly better than Harris’s (2.99, 31st). This is not so much an argument that new OC Arthur Smith will decide to let Warren take over the backfield as it is suggesting he should be expected to do so without issue if called upon.”
The Steelers turned down the fifth-year option that would have paid Harris $6.7 million in 2025. Instead, he is now set to become an unrestricted free agent next March. Many believe it will be Harris’ last season in Pittsburgh.
Anthony DiBona of Pro Football Network thinks Harris will take a step back this season, mainly because he doesn’t view him as a fit in offensive coordinator Arthur Smith’s scheme. He also thinks Warren is the better back.
“Last year, Najee Harris made it a third consecutive season in which he ran for over 1,000 yards. Yet, despite his success, he could take a step back under new offensive coordinator Arthur Smith in 2024,” DiBona wrote.
“Although Smith had plenty of success with Derrick Henry while with the Tennessee Titans, his misuse of Robinson in Atlanta was confusing. Jaylen Warren also showed promise for the Steelers last season, and Pittsburgh added Cordarrelle Patterson in free agency, who is also familiar with Smith.”
Warren ran for 5.3 yards per carry, one of the best figures in the league in 2023. He ran 149 times for 784 yards and four touchdowns. He was also more involved in the passing game, catching 61 passes for 370 yards compared to 29 receptions for 170 yards for Harris. On a per-touch basis, Warren is more explosive and efficient than Harris. Warren’s running style fits more with Smith’s run schemes, too.
Graham Barfield of Fantasy Points thinks Warren’s carries in the red zone will increase substantially under Smith this season.
“Jaylen Warren might be more involved near the goal-line this season,” Barfield wrote. “The Steelers old staff gave Najee Harris 45 carries inside-the-10 (78% share) compared to just 12 for Warren (21% share) in the last two seasons. OC Arthur Smith loves to rotate RBs in the red-zone. Bijan Robinson handled just 44% of carries inside-the-10 last year. Allgeier was at 37% and Patterson 19%
“Falcons RBs split similarly inside-the-10 two years ago as well – Allgeier 45%, Patterson 32%, Hundley 21%.”
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