The Pittsburgh Steelers are in the playoffs despite a soul-crushing loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, but is it time to rejoice?
I’m not so sure.
Yesterday’s drubbing exposed some worrisome trends, and the injuries are mounting as the Steelers proceed through the most challenging part of their schedule.
Current FanDuel NFL odds have the Steelers as +6.5 underdogs against the Ravens this week.
Though this Steelers team shattered expectations, fading them through the final month might be the correct strategy.
AFC North Up for Grabs
The Steelers are the favorite to win the AFC North, and a win this week versus the Baltimore Ravens clinches the division. A loss, however, would unleash chaos.
After Baltimore, the Steelers play a home game against the 11-1 Kansas City Chiefs. Mahomes status for the next few weeks after suffering a high ankle sprain is unclear, but no matter who the Chiefs start, the Steelers play that game on four days’ rest.
The Steelers end the season against a dangerous Cincinnati Bengals offense.
The Ravens are also on a short week after playing the Steelers. They play the Houston Texans on Christmas Day. The Ravens end their season against the woeful Cleveland Browns.
Betting the Ravens to cover a -6.5 spread at standard -110 odds isn’t the smartest fade play. These teams play each other very closely, with only three of the previous ten matchups decided by seven or more points.
Take the Ravens to win the AFC North for the juicy price of +125 if you want to fade the Steelers.
Unders Back in Play
Steelers games have gone under the previous two weeks without George Pickens. Pickens suffered a grade 2 hamstring strain but may return against the Ravens this week. Given the severity of the strain, he likely won’t be at full health even if he plays.
Russell Wilson isn’t the same QB without Pickens. Wilson passed for a woeful 123 yards versus the Eagles and didn’t perform much better against the Browns, hitting only 158. Both games went under the total.
Russ has been a revelation for the Steelers. His veteran leadership, football IQ, strong arm, and elusiveness transformed the Steelers’ offense.
Wilson, however, is not on the same level as Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes, or Lamar Jackson. That’s not a criticism of Wilson, though. He’s a more than capable field general.
At 36, he’s not a QB capable of racking up a lot of yards and points especially when he’s missing his primary weapon.
The Ravens are 11-3 to the over, but games against the Steelers have gone under eight times in a row. The Chiefs are 6-8 to the under. Both games will likely be trench battle slug fests, so I’d look at game totals, Steelers team totals, and Russell Wilson passing props to go under.