NFL Wildcard Weekend Picks: Steelers vs. Ravens
Another year, another NFL Wildcard Weekend on the road for the Pittsburgh Steelers. Another year where they are massive underdogs, +9.5, against a team power rated significantly higher.
Less than a month ago, the Steelers were 10-3 and in the pole position to win the AFC North. Steelers Nation hummed with excitement. After ending the season on a four-game losing streak, this Saturday’s game already feels like a footnote in the story of Mike Tomlin’s lack of playoff success.
So, here we go? Steelers?
Baltimore Ravens -6.5 First Half Spread
The Steelers scored an average of 9.9 first-half points during the 2024 NFL Regular Season, and that number dropped by almost two points, 8.0, during the season’s final three games.
Pittsburgh’s first-half defense hasn’t fared much better, allowing an average of 11.5 in 2024 and 14.3 in the season’s final three games.
Playing from behind isn’t a strength for the Steelers; the rest of the league knows it.
Russell Wilson hasn’t topped 220 passing yards in any game during the recent Steelers four-game skid, despite the Steelers needing a second-half comeback in every contest.
The Ravens score an average of 14.8 first-half points per game. The Ravens’ script to victory is clear—pounce on the Steelers early and have Derrick Henry pound Pittsburgh into submission.
I expect Baltimore to start hot and try to deal an early death blow to this Steelers team.
Game Total Under 43.5
The Steelers put up 44 points against the Cincinnati Bengals on December 1. Russell Wilson’s 414 passing yards and three touchdowns had Steeler Nation salivating. The promises of a Super Bowl-winning quarterback and a new offensive coordinator looked fulfilled.
A month later, the Steelers scored only 17 points versus the Bengals. The offense gained a mere 193 total yards.
What happened? Mike Tomlin wanted to run the ball.
Tomlin’s Steelers follow a simple recipe to win games in the post-Roethlisberger era. They run the ball, force turnovers, and keep the game within a one-score margin into the fourth quarter.
So, what was the point of a new offensive coordinator and QB if the philosophy and results remain the same? What was all the fuss about if Tomlin can’t stomach a shootout?
Tomlin will not deviate from his philosophy tonight or maybe ever.
The Scoreboard Will Deceive on NFL Wildcard Weekend
Tonight’s game is one where I expect the Steelers to get dominated everywhere but the scoreboard. The Ravens will jump out to an early lead and stop trying to score, while the Steelers’ ineffective offense will spend the game chasing.
In past years, I’d run to take 9.5 points on an underdog playing a divisional opponent in a playoff game. This year is different. NFL favorites are covering spreads at a 54.3% rate.
A low-scoring game will likely keep the 9.5 spread within play. A 17-10 final score is possible, but I don’t have the guts to take the Steelers here.
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