Ranking Potential Pittsburgh Steelers Playoff Matchups
We are entering the home stretch of the 2024 NFL regular season and the Pittsburgh Steelers have all but clinched their date to the postseason.
Even with a difficult three-game stretch on the upcoming slate of the schedule, the Athletic’s probability model predicts the team to finish with a 12-5 record with a 74% chance of securing the AFC North title and home playoff game as a reward. If you look at the current standings, the field is mostly set to the point where the next four weeks will be more about seeding rather than franchises making that final push.
One of the truest statements in the game is that the NFL is a matchup league, which begs the question: Which of these teams are the best and worst matchups for the Steelers in January?
This exercise ranks those hypothetical opponents by degree of difficulty, from the most ideal circumstances to some battles that could be more of an uphill climb to come away with a victory. For obvious reasons, this piece will only focus on the teams currently in (Kansas City, Buffalo, Houston, Baltimore, Denver and Los Angels) and Indianapolis, who is on the bubble with an outside to chance to push for the final spot because of their unique opportunity to help themselves by knocking off the Broncos this coming Sunday.
Let the standings watch begin!
1) Denver Broncos
Not only do I think that this matchup would be ideal from the Steelers perspective, the NFL would be beyond hyped for a Sean Payton/Russell Wilson duel on Wild Card weekend. Both of these teams have changed since their game in September but Pittsburgh’s ability to get pressure on the quarterback, even against good offensive lines such as this, makes this a favorable matchup. Facing off against rookie quarterbacks has it’s advantages and Bo Nix has a habit of getting jittery in the pocket and that reflects in his 5.3 yards per attempt figure when pressured this season per PFF. Denver’s defense is excellent, led by a superstar corner in Pat Surtain who is capable of slowing down George Pickens, but I lean more towards the experience at quarterback with a guy that’s been there and done that.
2) Indianapolis Colts
This is a team that has some serious work to do in order to make the dance and has the feel of a squad that’s probably still a year away. Having said that, Shane Steichen has given the Steelers defense fits in recent memory while averaging 30.6 points, 377 yards and winning the prior three matchups with a different quarterback each time. Pittsburgh moved the ball at will against their defense earlier this season but had some untimely turnovers eventually sink their chances. Anthony Richardson’s impact in the run game is certainly notable but the second-year pro is still far too inconsistent as a passer at this stage of his career and until that stabilizes, it’s difficult to get behind them in this type of setting. There’s a good chance that the Steelers would be close to touchdown favorites if push came to shove, even if you may be a little uneasy about previous bouts.
3) Houston Texans
When identifying contenders, four-man pass rush groups are a foundational, necessary ingredient for postseason success and the Texans dynamic duo of Danielle Hunter and Will Anderson, who have combined for 129 pressures according to NGS, is about as good as it gets in our league. They’re the primary reason that Houston is ranked first overall in success rate defensively. So why are they not lower on this list despite currently running away with their division crown? Simply put, the offense has not been good enough this season, mostly because of an interior offensive line that has negatively affected the play of 2023 Rookie of the Year, C.J. Stroud. It’s true that they drummed Pittsburgh early last year but don’t discount the fact that Cam Heyward, who is playing as well as anyone right now, didn’t partake in that one due to injury.
4) Los Angeles Chargers
The Chargers are a team that have exceeded pretty much everyone’s expectations in year one of the Jim Harbaugh era and some of that is due to draft selections on the offensive side of the ball like Joe Alt and Ladd McConkey being legitimately good players from the jump. Perhaps even more impressive is what first-time NFL defensive coordinator Jesse Minter has done with a band of misfit toys and aging, but still talented, stars in Khalil Mack and Joey Bosa. They’re well coached with a franchise quarterback and strong defense but this feels like a team that’s probably punching above their weight to date. The skill position talent simply pales in comparison to the rest of the playoff teams in this conference and it’s fair to wonder if they’d be capable of winning higher scoring affairs.
5) Baltimore Ravens
Having Lamar Jackson, one of the most dynamic players at the games most important position, is a luxury that the Ravens are fortunate enough to have on a weekly basis. With the addition of Derrick Henry, it’s added another element offensively and that tandem is a key reason why they’re the fourth highest scoring team on a per drive basis through the first 14 weeks of the season. Baltimore’s pass defense has been woeful for the majority of the season but recent personnel and schematic changes have made a positive impact there. These two rivals face off again in a number of days but for one reason or another, the Steelers have just had their number in recent years, winning eight of the last nine. For a Ravens team looking to finally break through in their pursuit of a championship, they’re definitely hoping to steer clear of their kryptonite.
6) Kansas City Chiefs
This is the part of the list that features the true Super Bowl contenders and while it feels weird to not have the Chiefs at the top spot, there are reasons for that. Coming off back to back rings, Kansas City’s offense isn’t flashy but is brutally efficient, engineered by an all-time great signal caller that has shredded the Steelers defense in every matchup throughout his career (14-1 TD/INT ratio). They’ve been somewhat fortunate to win so many one-score affairs this season but perhaps more concerning has been the falloff on the defensive side of the ball. The cornerback spot has been a glaring weakness but do the Steelers have enough perimeter talent to expose that in a postseason setting? Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce always seem to find another gear when it matters most but this team might not be as dominate as their 12-1 record indicates.
7) Buffalo Bills
After knocking the Steelers out of the playoffs last season, Buffalo seems like the most logical choice for the worst possible draw. For starters, Josh Allen has played out of his mind so far in 2024, leading the league in EPA/play while simultaneously lowering his turnover-worthy play % to a career low figure. They’ve completed bought into the power spread formula with a downhill rushing attack and a truly balanced offense overall and while the defense is in a state of transition, Sean McDermott’s teams always seem to adjust well as the game progresses. The one key element that this team is missing from the championship formula is that their pass rush isn’t all that terrifying and we’ve seen veteran passers get hot against them in certain spots this season. Their +129 point differential is best in the conference by a wide margin. This is a team that the Steelers would be lucky to avoid until the very end.
STEELERS IN AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
1. Kansas City Chiefs 13-1
2. Buffalo Bills 11-3
3. Pittsburgh Steelers 10-4
4. Houston Texans 9-5
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5. Baltimore Ravens 9-5
6. Los Angeles Chargers 9-5
7. Denver Broncos 8-6
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8. Indianapolis Colts 6-8
9. Miami Dolphins 6-8
10. Cincinnati Bengals 6-8
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11. New York Jets 4-10
12. Cleveland Browns 3-11
13. Jacksonville Jaguars 3-11
14. Tennessee Titans 3-11
15. New England Patriots 3-11
16. Las Vegas Raiders 2-12
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