Steelers Will Face Playoff Elimination in Week 17

The Pittsburgh Steelers will face playoff elimination in Week 17. The Steelers would need to lose to the Seattle Seahawks, and have four other games not go their way in order to be eliminated from the 2023 NFL playoffs before the end of the regular season.

Pittsburgh will see its playoff hopes come to an end if each of these five games don’t go its way:

• Steelers LOSS to the Seattle Seahawks AND
• Buffalo Bills WIN over the New England Patriots AND
• Indianapolis Colts WIN over the Las Vegas Raiders AND
• Los Angeles Chargers WIN over the Denver Broncos AND
• Jacksonville Jaguars WIN over the Carolina Panthers OR
Houston Texans WIN over the Tennessee Titans

That’s a lot of dominoes that would have to fall to see the Steelers wash out of the playoffs this week, but the bad news is that five of those six outcomes involve the favorites winning.

The Steelers are 3.5-point underdogs to the Seahawks, the Bills are favored by 12 over the Patriots, the Colts are 3-point favorites over the Raiders, the Jaguars are 7-point favorites over the Panthers and the Texans are expected to beat the Titans by 3.5. Only with the Chargers, who are 5.5-point underdogs to the Broncos, are the Steelers hopes aligned with betting odds.

Still, all five outcomes falling against the Steelers would be unlikely. A five-game parlay featuring the Jaguars would have +1062 odds, per ESPN Bet, or implied odds of 8.61%. A similar parlay with the Texans would have +1241 odds, or 7.46% expected chance of occurrence.

The Steelers notably have not been eliminated before the final game of the regular season since way back in 2012, the only time it happened under Tomlin. They’ve only played in three games since 2000 when they were already eliminated before kickoff.

Entering the week, the Steelers have a 13% chance of making the playoffs, according to the New York Times playoff simulator.

If everything goes wrong, the Steelers could see their playoff odds at zero at the end of the week. But I everything goes right, their postseason odds could be as high as 66% ending the week, and they could control their own destiny with a win over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 18.

STEELERS IN AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE

1 Baltimore Ravens 11-3
2 Miami Dolphins 11-4
3 Kansas City Chiefs 9-6
4 Jacksonville Jaguars 8-7
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5 Cleveland Browns 10-5
6 Buffalo Bills 9-6
7 Indianapolis Colts 8-7
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8 Houston Texans 8-7
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7
10 Cincinnati Bengals 8-7
11 Las Vegas Raiders 7-8
12 Denver Broncos 7-8
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13 New York Jets 6-9
14 Tennessee Titans 5-10
15 Los Angeles Chargers 5-10
16 New England Patriots 4-11