Week 1 NFL: Eagles vs. Packers Picks and Promos

The Week 1 NFL schedule has the Philadelphia Eagles take on the Green Bay Packers on a Friday night in São Paulo, Brazil.

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The Eagles are consensus -2.5 favorites for this Peacock exclusive game. Check out my best bets for this Week 1 NFC clash. 

Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 (DraftKings)

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According to professional bettor Billy Walters, NFL home-field advantage is historically worth 2.5 points. More recent data from the last two seasons shows it’s worth less than a point. 

Using this logic, Philadelphia would be a 3-3.5 favorite if they played the Packers at home. I think you have to play that edge here. The Eagles are easily one of the top three rosters in the NFL. 

The Eagles were aggressive after sliding into the 2023 playoffs on a six-game losing streak. Incoming RB Saquon Barkley will invigorate a running game that dropped an average of 28 yards of production from 2022. 

They also signed veteran CB Avonte Maddox. At 31, Maddox isn’t what he was but serves as a steadying force in a contentious locker room.

 I’ll take the more talented team under a field goal. 

Game Total Under 49.5 (Fanatics)

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Both of these teams have a top-flight offense. 

Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love finished the 2023 season hot. In the final three games, Love threw for 791 yards and seven touchdowns. The offense finished last season ranked eighth in points per game, scoring an average of 23.8.

And during the offseason, the Pack added talented RB Josh Jacobs to improve their rushing attack. 

That travel, though. 

Last year, the NFL played three games in London—all three went under the total.

These international games aren’t easy to organize. Athletes are creatures of routine, and playing games in foreign countries disrupts game week. Teams experience extended travel times and an interrupted practice schedule. 

And neither the Packers nor the Eagles played their starters much, if at all during the 2024 preseason. 

I expect a lot of rust. While I’d likely lean to the over later in the season, a 49.5 total for an NFL Week 1 international game is too high.