The game total for the upcoming Week 8 NFL Monday Night Football game is 36.5, according to the latest FanDuel odds. South of 40 is a low number for a team that did the unthinkable in Week 7, scoring 37 points against the New York Jets.
Mike Tomlin’s decision to start veteran Russell Wilson over Justin Fields caused significant controversy. Fields went 4-2 as the Steelers starter. The decision to start Wilson paid massive dividends after a slow first quarter.
The Steelers’ offensive outburst against the New York Jets is part of a trend—Steelers games have gone over the total in three of the past four weeks.
Are the Pittsburgh Steelers an over team?
The Market Doesn’t Respect the Steelers Offense
Why should it? The 2023 Steelers offense went over 20 points in only six games. The 2024 offense couldn’t get into the endzone with any regularity through the first five games, going over 20 points only once. According to FanDuel Research, the Steelers offense ranks 16th in the NFL.
I expect Pittsburgh to climb those rankings in the coming weeks.
The Steelers have scored over 20 in three of the previous four weeks, sailing over that total in the last two—32 and 37 points, respectively.
20 or more points won’t be an issue for the Steelers provided Wilson’s continued cooking. The Ravens, Browns, and Bengals all allow an average of over 20 points per game.
Beware the Steelers’ Defense
After seven weeks, the Steelers’ defense ranks second in the NFL, allowing an average of 14.4 points per game. The Pittsburgh defensive unit is excellent in the red zone, with opponents converting touchdowns only 42.86%.
The Steelers’ defense can become even more dominant if the offense continues its uptick. With Wilson opening up the passing game, running backs Jalen Warren and Najee Harris should find more room to run.
A more effective ground game combined with a quarterback able to convert third downs keeps the defense off the field.
Last year, the Steelers offense converted third downs at a 37.04% clip. These stalled drives put more pressure on the defense.
Week 8 NFL Odds: Take the Over
The current Week 8 NFL odds from FanDuel Sportsbook has the Steelers vs. Giants game total at 36.5. Am I concerned that the Giants have only managed ten combined points over the last two weeks? Yes.
The Steelers might win this game 21-0, but I think Tomlin, OC Arthur Smith, and Russell Wilson want to flex their muscles. Monday night’s game will likely be a statement game to the rest of the NFL.
Depending on injuries, I’ll happily bite on the Steelers to go over any total under 40 points for the remainder of the 2024 season.