What is Pittsburgh Steelers Most Likely Playoff Matchup?
There are four scenarios that can play out over the next two days that give the Pittsburgh Steelers three different scenarios for where they’ll play in the Wild Card Round of the 2024 NFL playoffs, and who their first playoff opponent will be.
The Steelers can either play the Los Angeles Chargers at home as the No. 3 seed, go on the road to play the Houston Texans as the No. 5 seed, or visit the Baltimore Ravens for a rubber match as the No. 6 seed.
We’ve known those scenarios for a while now. But how likely are each of those outcomes?
We can use gambling data to figure that out. Calculating the implied odds, using the lines for each team as of midnight Saturday at FanDuel Sportsbook, and calculating them as a percentage of the whole to account for the vigorish, or built-in casino advantage, the following are the implied probabilities of each of the three games:
Baltimore Ravens win (-4,000): 93.98%
Cleveland Browns win (+1,500): 6.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers win (+114): 44.93%
Cincinnati Bengals win (-134): 55.07%
Los Angeles Chargers win (-210): 65.15%
Las Vegas Raiders win (+176): 34.85%
Using a simple system of probabilities, we can then calculate the percentage of change of each of the three Steelers outcomes:
Win AFC North, No. 3 seed vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 2.71%
Wild Card, No. 5 seed at Houston Texans: 61.42%
Wild Card, No. 6 seed at Baltimore Ravens: 35.88%
After the result of the first game between the Ravens and Browns is in, we can also update those Steelers playoff probabilities as follows.
If Baltimore wins:
Wild Card, No. 5 seed at Houston Texans: 64.12%
Wild Card, No. 6 seed at Baltimore Ravens: 35.88%
If Cleveland wins:
Win AFC North, No. 3 seed vs. Los Angeles Chargers: 44.93%
Wild Card, No. 6 seed at Baltimore Ravens: 35.88%
Wild Card, No. 5 seed at Houston Texans: 19.19%
So if you want to see the Steelers in the postseason this year, you probably should call your travel agent.
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