Why Have Jake Browning, Other Backup QBs Succeeded While Steelers Failed?
PITTSBURGH — It’s probably not a coincidence that the Pittsburgh Steelers have lost their last three games while quarterback Kenny Pickett has been out with a right ankle injury.
The Steelers’ offense was struggling along even with Pickett, and the team had been routinely out-gained and had a negative point differential, even though they were 7-2 in games he started and finished.
Mitch Trubisky has been a good bit worse than Pickett, falling short in nearly every metric except for completion percentage, where he was 0.6% better. Most importantly, the Steelers are 0-5 in games Trubisky has appeared in this season. He lost two games in relief that he entered trailing, one that was tied, and lost twice as a starter.
Trubisky has been benched, and Mason Rudolph will start this Saturday’s game if Pickett can’t.
That makes an interesting contrast to this Saturday’s opponent.
The Cincinnati Bengals had also struggled on offense, at least compared to their expectations, though the first half of the 2023 season. Joe Burrow played through an injury early, Tee Higgins has been banged up all year, and the team just did not click in 2023 the way that the high-powered Cincinnati offense had in years past.
Compared to his Pro Bowl year in 2022, Burrow’s passer rating was down 9.8 points, his QBR down 8.1 points, his completion percentage down 1.5% and his adjusted net yards per attempt down a whopping 1.05 in 2023.
That was, until Burrow was lost for the season to a wrist injury on Nov. 16. That seemed like it would be even more catastrophic for the Bengals than Pickett’s injury has been for the Steelers
Unlike the Steelers, who were able to turn to a former No. 2 overall draft pick with 55 starts under his belt and the team’s own former starter in Trubisky. The Bengals handed the reins to 27-year-old former Washington quarterback Jake Browning, who had been in the league since 2019 without ever taking a single regular-season snap before this year.
While the Steelers have sputtered and faltered under Trubisky, the Bengals have been better with Browning than they were with Burrow.
In five games, one in relief and four as a starter, Browning has a 73.6% completion percentage, a 107.1 passer rating, a 59.1 QBR and a 7.45 ANY/A — all better than Burrow this year. For that matter, all but one better than Burrow last year when he made the Pro Bowl.
If Browning had attempted enough passes to qualify, he’d be first in completion percentage, second in passer rating, 11th in QBR and third in ANY/A among all NFL quarterbacks.
After losing to the Steelers on Nov. 26 in his first start, the Bengals are 3-0 under Browning in the last three weeks, beating three consecutive playoff teams.
How have the Bengals succeeded where the Steelers failed with a backup quarterback? And is Browning really this good? Did the entire NFL miss on this player for several years, or are the Bengals as an offense doing a better job of putting their backup in a position to succeed?
The thing is — Browning isn’t the only backup thriving in the NFL this season. Gardner Minshew with the Colts just gashed the Steelers. They appear to be headed to the playoffs. Joe Flacco has the Browns in solid playoff position. The Minnesota Vikings have started four different quarterbacks this season. They’re the sixth seed in the NFC. Drew Lock just led the Seattle Seahawks over the Philadelphia Eagles, while starting on not an even an hour’s notice.
So let’s start with Browning. How on Earth has the journeyman no-name out-performed one of the stars of the game in the same offense?
“Browning is doing a really good job of taking care of the ball,” head coach Mike Tomlin said. “His completion percentage speaks to that, their lack of turnovers, or their ball security speaks to that, but it’s not just him it’s them. They’ve done some schematic things to really do a nice job of staying on schedule and not being one dimensional, working to keep defenses off balance, changing launch points.”
Tomlin also said the length of time that Browning has spent in the Cincinnati system makes it easier for him to come in and have success. Minshew did the same, coming to the Colts after spending time with coach Shane Steichen in Philadelphia.
“He’s been in that program a long time,” Tomlin said. “And that provides a higher floor for performance, I think. We’re not surprised sometimes when people get an opportunity and prove their capabilities, particularly when they’ve been in the wings and working for an extended period of time. …There’s oftentimes some exposure that’s not reflective of play time that tees up performance.”
That might explain some of Browning’s success. But the Steelers spent all last season preparing Trubisky to be the starter. Surely, he got more work than Browning ever did as Burrow’s backup. Lock has been with Seattle the same length of time, coming over in 2022 trade from Denver.
Josh Dobbs was traded from the Cleveland Browns to the Arizona Cardinals before Week 1 and beat the Dallas Cowboys in Week 3. He was traded to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 9 and beat the Atlanta Falcons a few days later. It can’t all be about familiarity.
There is something that is fundamentally missing with the way the Steelers — or Trubisky — approached their time playing with a backup quarterback.
Tomlin had it right to start with the interceptions. Browning has thrown three, at 2.1%. Trubisky threw five at 4.7%. Of quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, that’s the second-highest interception percentage in the NFL this season.
Were those interceptions the result of Trubisky being especially cavalier with the football, or the result of a Steelers offense that couldn’t give him enough high-percentage options, couldn’t run the ball, could’t protect the quarterback, were highly penalized, and were too frequently behind the sticks and/or the scoreboard?
It’s really impossible to say.
But when you look at what has happened to these teams in the last three weeks, since the Steelers beat the Bengals in Browning’s first start in Cincinnati, the difference is clear.
The Steelers’ backup turned the ball over and lost. The Bengals’ backup didn’t and won.
Whether Pickett returns or it’s Rudolph on Saturday, the path to victory should be pretty obvious.
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