The Steelers’ current NFL Win Total sits at 11.5, according to current FanDuel NFL odds. Chef Russell Wilson has transformed the Steelers’ offense from crap to caviar, and the defense ranks in the top ten in points allowed.
Yet, gigantic challenges remain.
After this week’s Browns game, Pittsburgh plays the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore Ravens, and Kansas City Chiefs all within 10 days.
Can the Steelers slay the schedule dragon, win 12 games, and claim an AFC North title?
Cleveland is a Must-Win
Pittsburgh lost to the Cleveland Browns on Thursday Night Football two weeks ago with a typical Mike Tomlin clunker. Tomlin’s Steelers underperform as road favorites with an ATS (against the spread) record of 32-40-2.
Tomlin’s teams are also historically flat on Thursdays, carrying a 2-9 record in the mid-week tilt.
This week’s game is on a Sunday in Pittsburgh. Note, too, that the Browns didn’t outplay Pittsburgh during the previous matchup. The Steelers outgained Cleveland in the air and on the ground, converted more third downs, and won time of possession.
A shanked 15-yard Corliss Waitman punt late in the 4th quarter put the Browns within Steelers’ territory for the winning score.
December’s Wins and Everything After
Let’s assume the Steelers beat the Browns and move to ten wins. Pittsburgh closes the season against a nothing-to-play-for Bengals squad, so they’ll need to pull at least one win out of the Phi-Bal-KC gauntlet. Which team, though?
The Steelers will be on regular rest for the Dec. 15 game versus the Eagles, a positive angle. Yet, Hurts and Barkley are torching every opponent, averaging 188.9 rushing yards per game.
Division rival Baltimore is next.
Ravens QB Lamar Jackson is somehow 2-5 versus the Steelers in his career, but a season sweep against one of the most talented teams in the NFL will be a tall order. Jackson is playing at an MVP level, and the Ravens are a deep and talented team.
Maybe Kansas City on Christmas Day? The Steelers will have played Baltimore only four days prior in what always is a fistfight. Yikes.
The 2024 vintage Chiefs aren’t sexy, ranking 11th in points scored per game, but Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid get the job done in the regular season. The Chiefs hold an 11-1 record coming into Week 14.
If the Steelers are to win any of these games, I think they win the Baltimore game. The Steelers have Baltimore’s number, winning eight out of the last ten versus the Dirty Birds.
Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson’s stat line versus the Steelers is equally bad. In seven career games versus Pittsburgh, Jackson has thrown for only 1,077 yards and five touchdowns with eight interceptions.
What if the Steelers Lose to the Browns?
Forget it.
I don’t see 12 wins. I wouldn’t tear up my ticket because stranger things have happened, but the Steelers winning two games of that gruesome three-game stretch is highly unlikely.
Will the Steelers Exceed Their Current NFL Win Total?
The handicap for the Pittsburgh Steelers’ current NFL win total of 11.5 is simple.
If the Steelers beat the Browns this week, they’ll likely win 12. If the Steelers lose, 11 wins is their likely ceiling, with 10 a real possibility.