Would Firing Matt Canada Improve Steelers Offense in 2023?

The Pittsburgh Steelers did not make a change at offensive coordinator ahead of their bye week, with head coach Mike Tomlin electing to keep embattled playcaller Matt Canada in his position.

That’s fitting with the Steelers’ tradition, as the club has never fired a coordinator in-season and has exceedingly rarely fired them at all.

The Steelers are in first place in the AFC North and have gotten off to a 3-2 start in their quest to return to the playoffs, so keeping Canada in place also seems to make sense for the team to meet its short-term goals.

Of course, other NFL teams are frequently less patient than Art Rooney II’s squad, and several have fired their offensive coordinator mid-season over the last few years. Specifically, seven NFL offensive coordinators have been fired in the middle of the season over the last six years.

The earliest was in 2017 when the Cincinnati Bengals canned Ken Zampese after just two games. The latest was in 2018 when the Minnesota Vikings let John DeFilippo go after a Week 14 loss.

NFL OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS FIRED IN-SEASON SINCE 2017

One of the reasons for the Steelers to avoid making a change at this point is the team’s record. At 3-2 and in first place in the AFC North, the playoffs are very much a part of the Steelers’ plan at this point. That can’t be said for the other teams that have fired their coordinators. No team has fired a coordinator with a winning record at any point since at least 2016.

Changing playcallers hasn’t helped teams win more most of the time. Of the seven replacement coordinators hired since 2017, only one had a better than .500 record. Four of the seven and all of the last four were worse than the coaches they replaced record-wise.

On the whole, teams with replacement coordinators have won 30% of their games, while the fired coaches won 32.4% of their games.

NFL TEAM RESULTS AFTER FIRING OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS, 2017-22

But there are many reasons for a team to win or lose that don’t all directly relate to the performance of the offense. The 2023 Steelers are the poster children for that phenomenon, winning three of their first five games thanks largely to incredible defensive efforts.

So what about the offense? Does it get better after firing a coordinator? The answer is yes — but only very slightly. The average points per game of our seven fired coordinators was 16.1 (That’s an average of their averages and not a more detailed breakdown). The replacements? They averaged 17.5 points per game.

Five of the seven replacement coaches did better than their predecessors, some of them dramatically. Bill Lazor averaged 20.1 points per game with Cincinnati after Ken Zampese scored nine in his two games before being fired. On the other hand, Freddie Kitchens, in his second time around as a replacement OC with the Giants in 2021, averaged about half of Jason Garrett’s 18.9 points per game.

The Steelers are currently at 15.8 points per game, which is just below the average point that caused the in-season firing of other coordinators.

NFL POINTS PER GAME AFTER FIRING OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS, 2017-22

While the scoring offense improved after the coordinator change on the whole, yardage did not. The seven new coordinators averaged 3.2 yards per game less than their fired cohorts had. Three replacements fared worse than the original coaches, while four were better.

At 268.2 yards per game, the Steelers are well under the average line that has caused a coordinator to be fired mid-season.

NFL YARDS PER GAME AFTER FIRING OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS, 2017-22

Let’s go back to those replacements for a moment. All seven replacements were made internally, with the quarterbacks coach being the most common individual promoted. There was also an associate head coach and two senior offensive assistants. The Steelers currently do not have either of those positions on their coaching staff. There was also one instance of an assistant quarterbacks coach being promoted.

That means that the overwhelming favorite to replace Matt Canada if fired would be quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan. Sullivan has been an NFL offensive coordinator twice, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from 2012-13 and with the New York Giants from 2016-17. Here’s how Sullivan’s time as a playcaller stacks up against Canada.

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett sits next to quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan during a game against the Cleveland Browns on Sept. 19, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

MATT CANADA VS. MIKE SULLIVAN AS OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR

In a much larger sample size, Sullivan averaged 0.6 points per game and 8.9 yards per game better than Canada. Considering the offensive environment in the league at the time, it’s a pretty minimal difference. Both Sullivan and Canada averaged 25th in scoring offense. Sullivan was slightly better in yards per game, averaging about 22nd, while Canada has been around 24th.

It should be noted that Sullivan’s first season as an OC, way back in 2012, was by far his best and is doing a whole lot of heavy lifting in terms of helping his averages. The coordinator that Sullivan was for the Giants in his most recent turn was no better than what Canada has been for the Steelers, at 17.4 points per game and 322.5 yards per game, 29th in scoring and 23rd in yards.

In summary, here’s what we’ve learned:

• Teams with playoff hopes remaining generally do not fire their offensive coordinators and teams that do fire their coordinators are usually worse off record-wise after the fact.

• Teams that have fired their coordinators saw a slight reduction in yards per game, but an increase in scoring.

• Matt Canada’s scoring and yardage numbers are well within the range of coordinators who have been fired.

• The Steelers have few realistic replacement options on their staff. No fired coordinator has been replaced by an external hire since before 2017. The overwhelming favorite to replace Canada, if fired, would be quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan.

• Sullivan was not better than Canada has been in his stints as an offensive coordinator, which were five and 10 years ago, respectively.

The data does not really support the idea that the Steelers would likely be better off firing Canada and replacing him with Sullivan, and the response of the players in the locker room suggests that Canada has not yet lost the support of the locker to the point where repeating his own results seems unlikely, though that could change.

The early date of the Steelers’ bye week makes it difficult to draw firm conclusions about how good or bad this team will be under Canada this year. But the Steelers have two additional long weeks coming ahead after dates on Thursday Night Football. So there are other chances in the schedule for Tomlin to make a change.

Adam Borst contributed research to this article.