PITTSBURGH — The AFC playoff race is a logjam with two weeks to go in the 2023 NFL season, and the Pittsburgh Steelers can still finish anywhere from fifth to 12th in the 16-team conference.
The Steelers are currently in ninth place in the AFC, fourth among five teams that are tied at 8-7. There are two teams one game ahead of them and two teams one game behind them, leaving a huge number of potential ties on the table. That makes tie-breakers an important part of the calculus for figuring out which teams are more likely to make it to the postseason.
The Steelers don’t have a ton of tiebreaker advantages. They have head-t0-head losses against the Indianapolis Colts, Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans, which are all 8-7.
But they have an ironclad win if they can get into a tie with another AFC North team. The Steelers swept the Cincinnati Bengals, split with the Cleveland Browns and can do no worse than split with the Baltimore Ravens, who they already beat and will face again in Week 18.
The Steelers have the best record in the division right now at 4-1, and that divisional record means that even though they’re two games behind the 10-5 Browns right now, they can still potentially pass Cleveland in the standings.
STEELERS IN AFC PLAYOFF PICTURE
1 Baltimore Ravens 11-3
2 Miami Dolphins 11-4
3 Kansas City Chiefs 9-6
4 Jacksonville Jaguars 8-7
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5 Cleveland Browns 10-5
6 Buffalo Bills 9-6
7 Indianapolis Colts 8-7
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8 Houston Texans 8-7
9 Pittsburgh Steelers 8-7
10 Cincinnati Bengals 8-7
11 Las Vegas Raiders 7-8
12 Denver Broncos 7-8
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13 New York Jets 6-9
14 Tennessee Titans 5-10
15 Los Angeles Chargers 5-10
16 New England Patriots 4-11
That divisional success is nothing new for the Steelers. They haven’t finished with a losing record in AFC North play since 2009. That’s the one and only time in the history of the division that the Steelers have finished below .500. They’ve never finished in last place.
Last Saturday, in their second game against the Bengals, the Steelers seemed to have Cincinnati figured out from the opening whistle, and the game was non-competitive by the midpoint of the second half.
The Bengals had won three straight games, all against playoff teams. The Steelers had lost three straight, two against two-win teams at home. What changed? Well, a lot of things changed for the Steelers, who got better play out of George Pickens and changed to Mason Rudolph at quarterback.
But don’t discount the change to a more familiar opponent as part of the solution.
“Divisional opponent, I think we kinda know what they do,” running back Najee Harris said on Wednesday when asked why the running game had more success than against the Colts the previous week.
Asked to elaborate on that, Harris credited Steelers coach Mike Tomlin for the team’s extensive history of strong play against AFC North rivals.
“Mike T has the game plan,” Harris said. “He tells us what to expect, what we need to do, how to execute. How to beat this person, how to beat this team. This is my third year here, and ever since I got here, he always told us that the divisional play is what keeps you in Pittsburgh. He always gives almost the blueprint of how to beat teams in our division because he is so well in knowing the other teams because he’s been here for a long time. I think really just Mike T. That’s why he is who he is right now. He’s one of the best coaches. It’s him giving us the blueprint for how to beat these teams, is I think, why we’re winning.”
Tomlin has absorbed a lot of the negativity from that three-game slide, when the team was unable to execute minor details, and looked like a poorly coached, low effort version of itself. But if the Steelers make it back to the postseason, the domination of the Bengals and their winning record against the rest of the AFC North will likely play a big part.