Steelers Projected to Finish 9th in AFC, Not Improve Win Total

The Steelers added plenty of new firepower to their team over the offseason, however, one analytics model does not like them enough to have them improving much at all in the 2023 NFL Season.

Cynthia Frelund’s model sees Pittsburgh winning 9 games and finishing 9th in the AFC, but that would be over their projected win total at 8.5 right now. Still, this is what Frelund says about Pittsburgh’s chances of eclipsing that total at this point in the offseason.

“According to my model, the Steelers’ most likely record by their Week 6 bye is 2-3. But fear not: They still end up with at least nine wins by Week 17 in 56% of simulations. Remember, we’re still months away from the start of the season, so that percentage is actually more significant than it may sound,” Frelund wrote.

The model seems to really like the Steelers to be a consistent team that hovers around .500, but since the team ended last year at 9-8 and infused plenty of new talent with Kenny Pickett heading into his second season, they would love to see more success. In addition, they would probably like to go into their bye week with a stronger start than 2-3 when you look at it from a macro view.

The team has time to gel and has reasons for upside, especially the second year for Pickett with new additions to the offensive line. However, the teams around them have improved plenty and the AFC North looks like it could be as grueling as ever in 2023.

Of course, the team’s toughest stretch of the season is how they end it. First, they host the Cincinnati Bengals at home on a primetime Saturday game before Christmas. Then, they travel to the West Coast to face the Seattle Seahawks on New Year’s Eve. Lastly, they go to Baltimore to meet with Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Those are three, physical games, and adding in the Colts game the week before, the team will finish on a stretch of three out of four road games.