What Does Success Look Like For 2023 Steelers?

If you asked Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin what his goals were for this upcoming season, he would succinctly express his desire to win another Super Bowl. That’s what coaches say in press conferences, partly because they have to. The end goal of all 32 NFL organizations never change from year to year but the expectations do. However, there can only be a handful of true contenders and more importantly, one winner standing on that podium with the commissioner each year in February.

As of the time of this writing, the Pittsburgh Steelers have the 18^th best odds to win the Super Bowl according to DraftKings. With a win over/under total currently set at 8.5, it’s pretty clear that the large majority of the market doesn’t view this team as a contender just yet. But that doesn’t mean this is a lost season by any means. In fact, it’s quite the opposite with the team building on something for the future. So, if not for a seventh Super Bowl trophy, what does success look like for the 2023 version of the Pittsburgh Steelers? Two things come to mind.

Complete Confidence in Kenny

It’s not rocket science to suggest that Kenny Pickett is the Steelers single most important asset for both the short and long-term trajectory of this organization The NFL is, quite simply, a quarterback’s league. If you don’t have what you believe is a franchise quarterback, you better be searching quickly for one before you’re out of a job. Based on everything they have said over the offseason, Pittsburgh believes that they have done the impossible, replace a legend with another franchise quarterback in succession. Now that he’s recently been named a team captain, Pickett heads into his second year in the NFL and first full campaign as the unquestioned man in charge, it’s time for him to prove the team right.

From a statistical standpoint, Pickett’s rookie season was nothing to get overly excited about, throwing seven touchdowns to nine interceptions. As the season wore on, the Steelers offense became more functional, due to an efficient run game paired with Pickett’s ability to take good care of the football by throwing just one pick in his final eight starts. With the Steelers winning seven of their last nine games to end 2022, four of those courtesy of game-winning drives orchestrated by their signal caller, there’s reason to assume that he’s a guy that this team can win moving forward.

Kenny Pickett scrambles as the Steelers face the Ravens on Jan. 1, 2022 in Baltimore. (Mitchell Northam / Steelers Now)

As the season came to a close, the flashes were certainly there. In year two, there needs to be more consistency throughout a full four quarters of play. In today’s fantasy football era, players are often solely judged by what’s in the box score. In what is likely to be a run-heavy offense, Pickett doesn’t necessarily need to throw for 4,500 yards and 30 touchdowns for this to be considered a successful sophomore season. What the Steelers need from Pickett is for him to continue reinforcing his strengths while developing his weaknesses.

Pickett has shown to be accurate, especially during the preseason when he was basically flawless. He’s a plus athlete for the position who can make plays out of structure with his legs and is accurate, particularly  while throwing on the move. He’s a good decision maker who takes care of the football, rarely putting it in harms way. He’s also shown that he can perform when the lights are the brightest late in ball games as evidenced by some of his clutch moments that came in the latter parts of his rookie season.

Pittsburgh running Verts against Atlanta's C1.

Gonna see a lot of this in 2023. Anytime Pickett gets single high, he's going to take shots to Pickens down the field until someone proves that they can stop him from making these acrobatic catches.

This was a dime, too. pic.twitter.com/Ni6V75gOug

— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) August 25, 2023

This season, you’d ideally like to see some development in a few more areas. Most notably, his overall comfortability in the pocket, being more willing to play within the structure of the offense and navigating the pocket without bailing unnecessarily. By doing this, he should show improvements as a processor developing into a more anticipatory thrower of the football. Along with some overdue schematic adjustments, the Steelers offense needs Pickett to be able to access the middle portions of the field in order for this unit to reach its potential.

In a loaded AFC conference that is full of exciting quarterbacks, Pittsburgh needs to have full confidence that Pickett can help the Steelers remain competitive in the near future. That doesn’t mean he has to put up numbers like Joe Burrow in 2022, but they need to see the offense, conducted by Pickett, occasionally go toe-to-toe with some of these elite offenses this season. Simply put, if Pickett proves that he’s “the guy” then the optimism around this team will sky-rocket, both internally and externally. He’s the biggest part of this whole equation without a doubt.

Get to the Dance

Mike Tomlin has quite an impressive resume, headlined by the fact that he’s never had a losing season throughout his tenure as the Steelers head coach. He’s the first to admit that the goal of winning championships is the thing that motivates him the most, but in order to secure those trophies, you have to have a ticket to the dance. As stated above, Pittsburgh isn’t being viewed as a contender this year and placing those lofty Super Bowl expectations on this squad would be both unrealistic and unfair. However, after just narrowly missing the postseason a year ago after a horrid start, it’s fair to expect this team to be in the hunt for a playoff berth in 2023.

When Ben Roethlisberger retired, the Steelers were headed for an inevitable rebuilding period, but Tomlin did what he always does last season- helped keep this team competitive. It wasn’t always pretty, usually it was quite the opposite. These turnarounds rarely happen overnight either. Just look around the landscape of the league and you’ll find organizations that are in disarray on a yearly basis.

Pittsburgh Steelers head coach Mike Tomlin at training camp, July 28, 2023. — Ed Thompson / Steelers Now

Pittsburgh hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016 which is a streak that the franchise and fan base alike are eager to put to an end. Winning a playoff game this season would be an impressive feat without a doubt but participating in the postseason action would have significant rewards for the future. The NFL playoffs are a completely different environment: it’s often colder, the stakes are much higher and the game itself just feels different. There is no simulation for that type of setting so the only way to gain that experience is securing a playoff spot.

That experience can be unequivocally important for a young quarterback such as Kenny Pickett who’s played in some big rivalry games throughout his playing career, but all of those pale in comparison to the pressure of the playoffs. Even aside from the quarterback, the entire offense in particular is young with very little playoff experience to speak of at the moment. This is a group that the team has already invested significant time into by allowing them to grow and develop with one another with a postseason berth being the next step in that journey.

On paper, this defense is ready to compete. With three foundational pieces in Watt, Fitzpatrick and Heyward, Pittsburgh has the star power to match just about anyone on that side of the ball. Now 34 years old, Heyward’s storied career is slowly winding down despite him still performing at a very high level. It would definitely be nice for the team to make a championship run with him still in the fold as he’s got very little left to accomplish from a personal perspective but is still missing that elusive Super Bowl ring.

Cam Heyward was just unbelievably dominant in all phases on Saturday night. He was single handedly keeping them in this game in the first half against Vegas.

They just couldnt block him. pic.twitter.com/EfXbq6Ek7m

— Derrick (@Steelers_DB) December 28, 2022

The Next Step

If Pickett progresses nicely this season, Pittsburgh is going to be right in the mix of the playoff hunt considering the pieces that they’ve already put around him. If the Steelers can navigate through year two of this quasi-rebuild with a franchise quarterback and a playoff appearance, that’s a win in my book. That’s progress nonetheless. Expectations will rightfully grow from this point forward, but this is the next step in the journey for the new era Steelers.