The Steelers have yet another opportunity to clinch the AFC North in Week 16 as they host a surging Indianapolis Colts team. Indianapolis has a host of young playmakers on both sides of the ball that are contributing to their upward trajectory. However, key veterans, such as quarterback Phillip Rivers, as holding down the anchor as well with their notable experience down the stretch. How can the Steelers somehow turn around the ship and defeat the Colts in Week 16?
Head Coach Frank Reich runs a system that relies itself upon West Coast offense ideals. That means this offense is very horizontal and they give their pass catchers lots of YAC opportunities. However, with Rivers being a rather solid vertical passer, they also have some elements of vertical passing concepts from the air raid and Air Coryell schemes respectively. It gives the offense flexibility to do what it wants. That flexibility comes in particular help when they suffer injuries along the offensive line and should impact them in a big way today.
Here is a little feel for the Colts passing offense. There are a lot of bunch sets and they like to attack the middle of the field at all levels. Drag routes are everywhere throughout the playbook. Some other extremely common routes are over routes, slants, post routes, and dig routes. They run bunch sets to try and create traffic. In that way, Steelers fans will recognize a bit of this scheme. Create mismatches with size through stacked looks and then let the receivers do the rest of the week. With a seam route on this play as well, it gives Rivers the ability to take the duty of trusting one of his receivers down the field if he wishes to do so. Seeing that he has single-high coverage and man coverage across the board, Rivers takes the shot and they get a big gain out of it.
However, one of the cruxes of their offensive success recently has been their rushing attack. Rookie Jonathan Taylor is finding his groove and the offensive line looks better than ever before. Most of their runs go between the tackles, and they run inside zone and split zone primarily. It takes advantage of strong blockers like tight ends Jack Doyle and Mo Alie-Cox.
Here is a split zone run where the movement upfront is clear as day. Doyle hits the kick-out block while the combo block by the right tackle and right guard get a lot of movement up to the second level. It clogs up the lanes for the linebackers and Taylor uses his vision and elusiveness to create yardage. Runs like this are commonplace for the Colts, especially over this past six-game stretch.
Defensively, the Colts run a 4-3 scheme headed by Defensive Coordinator Matt Eberflus. Eberflus has turned his defense into a primarily Cover 3 and Cover 1 heavy defense. When he came to the Colts in 2018, it was largely a Cover 2 defense, but that will change this season. With their adaptability in coverage, disguising coverages on the back end has never been better. Like the Bills, they do a lot of man match coverage, which is what led to Ben Roethlisberger’s pick-six against the Bills. Given the Steelers’ love of throwing the ball underneath, it would not be a surprise to see heavy single-high looks with match-man principles underneath to try and slow down the passing attack.
Players to Watch
QB Phillip Rivers
Rivers has been delightful to watch this season as he continues a strong season. Despite playing through a bad toe injury, Rivers has managed this offense nicely. The veteran expertise he has brought to the position, especially from a mental standpoint, has opened up the offense in a lot of ways. He can still make most of the throws to any part of the field, and while he is not mobile, Rivers has no trouble getting the ball out in a hurry underneath. Still, with a depleted offensive line this week, Rivers has his work cut out for himself.
OL Quenton Nelson
It is impossible to talk about Indianapolis and not mention potentially best player. Quenton Nelson is a monster who brings everything NFL teams to want in a guard to the table. He has the mauler nastiness to throw people into the ground. Nelson has the football IQ to sniff out stunts and stop them in their tracks. But perhaps most importantly, Nelson is a certified people mover. This running game’s base is powered by Nelson as he moves guys out of their gaps with ease. Now, Nelson had a tough time against Cam Heyward last season, so if there is anyone who can stop Nelson, it is Heyward.
DL DeForest Buckner
After coming over in a trade from San Francisco, the Colts have reaped the benefits of DeForest Buckner’s talents. He has been one of the best interior pass rushers in the NFL this season bar none. Buckner is fourth in the NFL among interior pass rushers in quarterback hits. His blend of explosiveness and power was felt by the Steelers last year. Buckner registered a sack, four pressures, two quarterback hits, and two quarterback hurries last year against the Steelers. They will have to slow him down and protect Roethlisberger.
Matchups to Watch
Nyheim Hines vs Steelers LBs
The Steelers are down to only three inside linebackers for this game with Ulysees Gilbert III heading to IR and Marcus Allen missing the game with a stinger. That leaves them without a strong coverage linebacker, and the Colts have an elite receiving back in Nyheim Hines. Hines is their gadget do-it-all guy similar to JD McKissic for the Washington Football Team. Whatever the Steelers have to do to prevent a repeat of that Week 13 performance, they have to do it. Especially with heavy pressure coming, it should be clear that quick passes to the running back are going to be used in high dosage on Sunday.
Steelers Pass Rush vs Colts Offensive Line
This is the elephant in the room. It is like a cloud hanging over the head of the Colts’ offense. They will be without both of the starting tackles, and they leave a lot of room for TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith to create pressure on Rivers. It was already noted that the Colts offensive line had trouble with Heyward last year, and with Stephon Tuitt now back in the mix as well, the Steelers pass rush could be a menace that this Colts offense is bugged by the entire game. If the Steelers want to win this game, the pass rush will need to be a big factor and perhaps create a turnover.