Steelers-Bills Playoff Primer: OL Challenged, Throw in Snow?

The Pittsburgh Steelers spent the last three weeks of their 2023 season in a mad dash to make the 2023 NFL playoffs. Now they’re here, and their reward is one of the best and hottest teams in the league in the Buffalo Bills.

While the Steelers won their last three games to get in, Buffalo finished the season with five straight victories, including beating the Kansas City Chiefs, Dallas Cowboys and Miami Dolphins. Since firing offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey in mid-November, the Bills have lost just once — an overtime loss on the road against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Gameday: Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills, 4:30 p.m.

KEY TO VICTORY: Stay out of obvious passing situations

The Steelers’ there-game winning streak has combined with a career resurgence for former No. 3 quarterback Mason Rudolph. But it has also come with an overall surge in offensive effectiveness, particularly the running game. With Najee Harris racking up two straight 100-yard games, the Steelers not only were more productive on offense, they kept Rudolph out of obvious passing situations.

The Steelers have not trailed by more than one score, they have stayed out of third and long. The one two-minute drill they ran against the Ravens at the end of the first half did not go well. The Buffalo Bills finished fourth in the NFL in sacks with 54 this season, and while they don’t have one guy that lights up the stat sheets, they come in waves. Leonard Floyd, A.J. Epenesa and Greg Rousseau are a strong 1-2-3 punch on the outside, and blitzing linebacker Terrel Bernard has added 6.5 sacks to the team total.

The Steelers do not have elite pass protecting tackles. The Bills can and will win those matchups if the Steelers are in too many obvious passing scenarios.

OVERLOOKED MATCHUP: Ed Oliver vs. Mason Cole

The Bills do not have one of the NFL’s best run defenses, but even their interior players can rush the passer. Defensive tackle Ed Oliver has 9.5 sacks this season, the fourth-most among NFL interior defensive linemen. Steelers center Mason Cole has allowed just two sacks, per PFF, but has given up 31 total pressures this season, the fourth-most in the NFL.

If Oliver can disrupt Rudolph up the middle, in addition to the edge rushers, it could be a long day for the Steelers passing game.

BOLD PREDICTION: Buffalo comes out throwing

The standard line of thinking for a game that involves potentially sub-zero wind chill and snow falling is that teams will lean on their running game. And make no question, with James Cook unleashed, these Bills are capable of leaning on the ground game. Josh Allen is also more than willing to tote the rock all on his own.

But the Bills were in one of these bad-weather games against the New England Patriots a few years ago, and in that one, they came out conservative. Late in the game, when they were losing and needed to pass, they had some success. Allen played college football at Wyoming. He has a strong arm. He can throw in all conditions. I think the Bills learned a lesson from last time.

PICK IT:

Bills 23, Steelers 14

Last week: Steelers 17-10 (W)

Season: 9-8

Steelers +10 (-105)

Under 38.5 (-105)

Najee Harris anytime touchdown (+140)

Last week: 1-2 (W N. Harris anytime TD; L Over 34.5, Ravens +3.5)

Season: 26-25

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