Ten Wins? Three Reasons to Bet the Steelers Over 9.5 Wins

Your Pittsburgh Steelers are an unexpected 3-1 and are -2.5 home favorites versus a banged-up Dallas Cowboys, according to Week 5 NFL odds.

Back in May, the Steelers’ win total was as low as 7.5 wins at some sportsbooks. Heading into Week 5, DraftKings Sportsbook has the Steelers win total number at 9.5, with the over juiced to +110.

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I had the Steelers handicapped for eight wins in 2024. They’re almost halfway there, but are these Pittsburgh Steelers capable of winning ten games?

Here are three reasons you should take over 9.5 wins at plus money.

1. The QB Situation Isn’t Dire

At least not right now. QB Justin Fields has played well enough through four weeks, even flashing glimpses of greatness.

His stats aren’t overwhelming—830 yards and only three touchdowns. He has, however, limited his turnovers.
And in Week 3, Fields was able to do something Kenny Pickett, Mitch Trubisky, and late-career Big Ben were unable to do: target the middle of the field.

Fields completed multiple passes between the hash marks versus the LA Chargers, including a 55-yard touchdown strike to Calvin Austin.

Should Fields’ play regress, the Steelers still have veteran Russell Wilson waiting in the wings.

2. The Defense is Legitimate

I thought the 2024 Steelers defense was overheated and overhyped. TJ Watt might be the best linebacker in team history (an incredible feat), but they ranked 21st against the rush last year, allowing opponents an average of 118.2 rushing yards per game.

They also had a ton of turnover luck last year, with a +11 turnover differential.

The Steelers D is strong against the run this year, allowing an average of only 86.8 rushing yards per game—third lowest in the NFL.

3. The Second Half Doesn’t Look as Hard

The Cleveland Browns are a mess. QB Deshaun Watson looks incapable of playing football, throwing for a mere 727 yards and four touchdowns.

Watson’s poor play is killing a Super Bowl-caliber Browns defense. The Browns’ offense is converting 20.75% on third down, and too many stalled drives force the Cleveland D to play too many minutes.

The extended playing time shows as the Browns are gashed by opposition rushing attacks for 123.2 yards per game.

The Cincinnati Bengals aren’t playing much better. QB Joe Burrow appears healthy, but the defense can’t stop the run. They’re getting a big dose of Derrick Henry this week, too.

Add it all up, and ten wins are within reach for the 2024 Steelers.

Bet over 9.5 wins at +110 odds now at DraftKings Sportsbook.